Gold price remains on the defensive amid a modest USD uptick, focus remains on Fed decision

• Gold price bulls turn cautious ahead of the crucial FOMC policy meeting starting this Tuesday.
• Bets for a 50 bps Fed rate cut should keep the USD bulls on the defensive and lend some support.
• China’s economic woes, the US political uncertainty and geopolitical risks further limit losses. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) ticks lower on Tuesday amid some profit-taking following the recent rise to the all-time peak touched the previous day, though the downside remains cushioned. The US Dollar (USD) bounces off its lowest level since July 2023 set on Monday amid some repositioning trade ahead of the crucial two Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting starting today. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor weighing on the commodity, though rising bets for an oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) might continue to act as a tailwind. 

Meanwhile, disappointing Chinese macro data released over the weekend added to concerns about a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical risks, along with the US political uncertainty ahead of the November election, lend some support to the safe-haven Gold price. Furthermore, traders might prefer to wait on the sidelines heading into the key central bank event risks – the Fed decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meetings on Thursday and Friday, respectively. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price traders seem non committed ahead of the key central bank event risks

• Rising bets for an oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve drag the US Dollar to its lowest level since July 2023 and lift the non-yielding Gold price to a fresh record high on Monday. 
• According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the markets are currently pricing in over a 60% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 50 basis points on Wednesday.
• The yield on the rate-sensitive 2-year US government bond fell to the lowest since September 2022 and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield slipped to the weakest since June 2023.
• The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 11.5 for September, much better than the -3.9 expected and the -4.7 previous, albeit did little to impress the USD bulls.
• A string of downbeat Chinese data released over the weekend pointed to more economic weakness and challenges in reaching the official target of around 5% GDP growth rate in 2024.
• Hamas issued a warning stating that hostages would be sent out in coffins if Israel continues its military strikes and didn't agree to a deal, raising the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East. 
• Adding to this, reports of a second attempted assassination attempt on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump add to the nervousness and act as a tailwind for the XAU/USD. 
• Bullish traders, however, take a brief pause and now await the outcome of a two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. 
• The Fed will announce its decision on Wednesday, which will be accompanied by new economic projections, including the so-called dot-plot, and followed by the post-meeting presser.
• Investors will closely scrutinize Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments for cues about the rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to the commodity. 

Technical Outlook: Gold price could appreciate further beyond $2,600 mark and test ascending channel resistance

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has moved on the verge of breaking into the overbought zone and holding back bulls from placing fresh bets. That said, the move-up along an ascending channel since June points to a well-established short-term uptrend. Furthermore, the recent breakout through the $2,525-2,530 supply zone supports prospects for additional gains. Any subsequent move up, however, is likely to confront stiff resistance near the $2,600 round figure, above which the Gold price could climb to test the ascending channel barrier, currently pegged around the $2,620-2,625 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter will mark a fresh breakout and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move. 

On the flip side, any corrective decline now seems to attract some buyers near the $2,555 horizontal zone. This should help limit the downside near the $2,530-2,525 resistance breakpoint, now turned support, below which the Gold price could slide back to the $2,500 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter might prompt some technical selling and make the XAU/USD vulnerable to accelerate the slide towards the $2,470 horizontal support. This is closely followed by the $2,464 confluence, comprising the ascending channel support and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which if broken might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders.