Gold price consolidates around $2,450 area as bulls turn cautious amid risk-on mood

Gold price (XAU/USD) seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses around the $2,450 area on Thursday and currently trades just below a two-week high touched during the Asian session. The near-term bias, meanwhile, seems tilted firmly in favor of bullish traders amid the prospects for an imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cutting cycle, which tends to underpin the non-yielding yellow metal.

The bets were reaffirmed by the Fed's relatively dovish outlook on Wednesday, which drags the US Treasury bond yields to a multi-month low and keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive. Apart from this, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East validate the positive outlook for the safe-haven Gold price. That said, a generally positive risk tone is seen acting as a headwind and capping the XAU/USD. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price might continue to benefit from dovish Fed-inspired USD weakness

• The Federal Reserve decided to hold its benchmark interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range while acknowledging the recent progress on inflation and cooling in the labor market.
• Furthermore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at the post-meeting press conference, signaled the likelihood of a rate cut in September if inflation stays in line with expectations.
• This comes on top of the disappointing release of the ADP report, which indicated a slowing in the labor market and wage growth, giving the Fed another reason to cut rates this year. 
• The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that private sector employment in the US rose 122K in July against the 150K expected and annual pay was up 4.8% year-over-year.
• The yield on the 10-year US government bond dived to its lowest level since February in reaction to the weak data and the Fed's dovish outlook, prompting aggressive US Dollar selling. 
• Apart from this, geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East further underpin demand for the safe-haven Gold price and lift it to a fresh two-week high on Thursday.
• The upside for the XAU/USD, however, could be limited by the risk-on impulse as traders now look to Friday's release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for some meaningful impetus.

Technical Analysis: Gold price bulls have the upper hand while above the  $2,412-2,413 resistance breakpoint

From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout through the $2,412-2,413 horizontal resistance comes on the back of the recent bounce from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. Moreover, the subsequent move beyond the $2,450 level, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction, validates the near-term bullish outlook for the Gold price. Hence, some follow-through strength towards the next relevant hurdle near the $2,468-2,469 region, en route to the $2,483-2,484 zone, or the all-time peak touched in July, looks like a distinct possibility. The latter is followed by the $2,500 psychological mark, which if cleared decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for additional near-term gains.

On the flip side, the Asian session low, around the $2,437 area, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $2,432 region. Any further downfall could now be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $2,413-2,412 resistance breakpoint. That said, some follow-through selling, leading to a breakdown through the $2,400 mark, could make the Gold price vulnerable to test the $2,384-2,383 support zone. The downward trajectory could extend further towards challenging the 50-day SMA, currently pegged near the $2,363 region, en route to the $2,353 area, or last week's swing low.