Global outlook less bright, after strong first half

Analysts from Wells Fargo, point out that the economic global outlook weakened during the last months. They noted a decline in export growth even before US tariffs.

Key Quotes:

“The first half of 2018 was a good start for the global economy, although a number of potential headwinds could disrupt the growth trajectory in the second half. Potentially the most disruptive of these headwinds are the U.S.-led protectionist trade policies and threatened retaliation, which could disrupt the upward trajectory for trade which has been in place since early 2016.”

“In fact, global trade was booming at the start of 2018, but has been hitand-miss more recently. The year-over-year rate of export growth has gone from 5.6 percent in January, to just 0.8 percent in March before picking back up again to 4.3 percent through April. Note that this was before the latest U.S. tariffs went into effect. While our U.S. forecast has been upgraded since last month, our global GDP growth forecast is a notch lower as we watch a number of developments with a growing degree of caution.”

“In late May and early June, sovereign bond markets in southern Europe revisited some of the worst volatility seen in years. In Italy, for example, 10-year bond yields rose above 3 percent, the highest since 2014 as worries about government fiscal stability returned as a concern for bond markets. Those
concerns have abated but not disappeared, with yields in Italy today about where they were at their highest point in 2015.”

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