Global growth enters the summer in the doldrums -  Wells Fargo


The global growth backdrop has remained tepid heading into the summer explained analysts at Wells Fargo. They forecast global real GDP growth in 2019 is 3.2%,  the slowest since the Great Recession.

Key Quotes: 

“The global growth backdrop has remained tepid heading into the summer. The Eurozone economy continues to teeter on the edge, with economic growth neither fast enough to reassure officials at the European Central Bank (ECB) nor slow enough to warrant more monetary stimulus. The weakness in Europe has been heavily concentrated in the manufacturing sector. The Eurozone PMI for manufacturing is firmly in contraction territory (left chart), as is factory order growth in Germany, a
key cog in Europe’s industrial engine.”

“Despite this weakness, the Eurozone’s larger service sector has hung in reasonably well, boosted by a resilient labor market. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone has declined 0.3 percentage points year-to-date, and year-over-year job growth in Q1 was only about half a percentage point slower than in the United States. Core inflation remains well short of the ECB’s target, however, and was just 0.8 percent on a year-ago basis in May. Accordingly, policymakers at the ECB refrained from easing monetary policy further in June but once again pushed back their forward interest rate guidance, pledging to keep rates at current levels through at least the first half of 2020.”

“Some central banks have already embarked on easing monetary policy (India, Australia) while financial markets are pricing in the start easing cycles in several others (Mexico, Brazil). Our forecast for global real GDP growth in 2019 is 3.2%, which, if realized, would match 2016’s pace for the slowest since the Great Recession. Another escalation in the ongoing trade spat, should it occur, could push the global economy to lows not seen in a decade. 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD recovers further toward 0.6800 on risk-recovery

AUD/USD recovers further toward 0.6800 on risk-recovery

AUD/USD extends recovery toward 0.6800 in Asian trading on Thursday, despite mixed Australian employment data. The Aussie cheers a return of risk appetite, which weighs on the post-Fed US Dollar recovery. All eyes now remain on US economic data for fresh impetus. 

AUD/USD News
USD.JPY reverses sharply from 144.00, as US Dollar recovery fizzles

USD.JPY reverses sharply from 144.00, as US Dollar recovery fizzles

USD/JPY is attacking 143.00 in Thursday's Asian session, reversing sharply from 144.00. The pair pares back gains in tandem with the US Dollar, as the latter's post-Fed recovery falters due to a rebound in risk sentiment. The focus is next on the US data due later today and Friday's BoJ decision. 

USD/JPY News
Gold price regains positive traction amid a modest USD pullback from one-week high

Gold price regains positive traction amid a modest USD pullback from one-week high

Gold price attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Thursday and seems to have stalled its retracement slide from the $2,600 mark, or a fresh all-time peak touched the previous day. The US dollar trims a part of its intraday gains to a one-week high, which turns out to be a key factor lending support to the commodity.

Gold News
Bitcoin surges to $62,000 mark after 50 bps Fed rate cut

Bitcoin surges to $62,000 mark after 50 bps Fed rate cut

Bitcoin and Ripple eye for a rally as they break and find support around their resistance barrier. Meanwhile, Ethereum demonstrates signs of recovery as it approaches a critical resistance level, indicating that an upward rally could be on the horizon if it successfully breaks through.

Read more
Australian Unemployment Rate expected to hold steady at 4.2% in August

Australian Unemployment Rate expected to hold steady at 4.2% in August

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly employment report at 1:30 GMT on Thursday. The country is expected to have added 25K new positions in August, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen to remain steady at 4.2%.

Read more
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures