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GBP/USD slumps on strong US Nonfarm Payrolls data, bears eye 1.2500

  • GBP/USD traded volatile in the data release, though resumed its downtrend.
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls figures exceeded estimates; hence traders priced out one Fed rate cut for 2024.
  • Traders are eyeing the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment poll.

The GBP/USD dives 0.50% in early trading during the North American session, sponsored by news showing the economy in the United States (US) remained resilient as the workforce added more jobs than expected. At the time of writing, the major trades at 1.2505, after trading volatile within 1.2578/1.2511 at the news release.

US economy remains stronger than expected, hence the GBP/USD tumbles to new weekly lows

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that 199K jobs were created in November, according to the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Market participants estimated a 180K increase, mainly driven by healthcare gains and auto workers. Digging into the data, the Unemployment Rate ticked lower from 3.9% to 3.7%. Average Hourly Earnings rose as the expected 4% on yearly readings, while month-over-month figures were up to 0.4% from 0.2% a month earlier.

Following the data release, trades had paired US Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations for the following year. According to data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), 120 basis points of rate cuts are estimated, 20 bps less than a week ago.

Meanwhile, the Greenback is recovering from Thursday’s losses, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) is up by 0.50%, at 104.15. US Treasury bond yields are climbing from the short to the long end of the curve. The 10-year benchmark note rate is 4.235%, gaining eight basis points.

On the UK front, a scarce economic docket has traders awaiting the Bank of England’s (BoE) next week meeting. Economists expect the BoE to stay pat, though rate cut estimates for 2024 project 80 bps of monetary policy easing.

Ahead in the day, GBP/USD traders are eyeing the release of the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment poll and inflation expectations.

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Friday’s price action has taken the GBP/USD near the 200-day moving average (DMA), at 1.2488, though it remains above the 1.25 figure. A decisive breach of the latter will expose the previously-mentioned support level, immediately followed by the 100-DMA at 1.2462. Downside risks will be reinforced once those two support levels are taken out, opening the door toward 1.2400. On the flip side, if buyers keep the exchange rate above 1.2500, they could threaten to regain 1.2550.

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price1.2516
Today Daily Change-0.0074
Today Daily Change %-0.59
Today daily open1.259
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.2534
Daily SMA501.2332
Daily SMA1001.2467
Daily SMA2001.2483
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.2613
Previous Daily Low1.2544
Previous Weekly High1.2733
Previous Weekly Low1.2591
Previous Monthly High1.2733
Previous Monthly Low1.2096
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.2587
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.257
Daily Pivot Point S11.2552
Daily Pivot Point S21.2514
Daily Pivot Point S31.2483
Daily Pivot Point R11.262
Daily Pivot Point R21.2651
Daily Pivot Point R31.2689

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

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