- GBP/USD climbs to 1.264, lifted by soft USD and dovish Fed cues, weak services data.
- Powell ties rate cuts to data; Bostic hints at delayed cuts to late 2024.
- Shifts in BoE and Fed rate cut expectations indicate evolving monetary policies.
The Pound Sterling posted solid gains against the Greenback on Wednesday after bouncing from a seven-week low of 1.2539 on Tuesday. Federal Reserve officials crossing the newswires and weaker-than-expected US services sector data are a headwind for the US Dollar, which tumbled for the second day in a row. The GBP/USD trades at 1.264, gains 0.56%.
GBP/USD rebounds from lows as Fed officials' comments and US services sector data influence currency dynamics
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed a softer-than-expected Services PMI, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, reaffirming that interest rates would be cut, but it would depend on upcoming data. On the contrary, Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic stood by his stance of just one rate cut, adding that it could happen in the last quarter of 2024.
In the meantime, US Treasury yields trimmed its earlier gains a headwind for the buck. The US Dollar Index (DXY) which tracks the performance of the American currency against other six, tumbles 0.46%, down at 104.26. This comes after the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI sent the DXY rallying to the 105.00 mark.
Bank of England and Fed rate cut expectations
Money market futures traders see the Bank of England (BoE) cutting rates 25 basis points in June, with odds standing at 66%. Across the Atlantic, traders had fully priced in a 25-basis point cut by the Fed until July 31.
GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
Given the fundamental backdrop, GBP/USD price action suggests the pair could test the 50-day moving average (DMA) after reclaiming the 200 and the 100-DMA, each at 1.2586 and 1.2656, respectively. If those levels are taken out of the way, expect further upside at around 1.2700. On the other hand, if sellers step in and push the exchange rate below the 200-DMA at 1.2586, that could spur a test of 1.2500.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD climbs to 1.1600 region on renewed USD weakness
EUR/USD gains traction in the second half of the day on Monday and tests 1.1600. The disappointing NY Empire State Manufacturing Index data from the US hurts the USD and helps the pair stretch higher. Meanwhile, the bullish opening in Wall Street points to an improving risk mood.
GBP/USD rises above 1.3600 as markets remain focused on geopolitics
GBP/USD trades in positive territory above 1.3600 in the American session on Monday, while investors keep a close eye on the ongoing military conflict between Iran and Israel. Later in the week, the Fed and the BoE will announce monetary policy decisions.
Gold retreats from multi-week highs, closes in on $3,400
Gold retreats from a nearly two-month peak it set at the weekly opening and closes in on $3,400 on Monday. The positive shift seen in risk sentiment, despite the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, seems to be causing the yellow metal to lose interest.
Seven fundamentals for the week: Iran-Israel war, Fed to fire up tariff-troubled markets Premium
When will the Fed cut interest rates? That question competes with the Israel-Iran war and the fate of the tariffs America slaps on its peers. US retail sales and interest rate decisions in Japan and the UK keep things lively as well.
Chinese data suggests economy on track to hit 2025 growth target
China's May data was mixed with strong retail sales, but soft readings on fixed-asset investment and property price. Overall, though, data suggests that China remains on track to achieve its growth target in the first half of 2025.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.