GBP/USD rallies above 1.2050, prints a new three-month high

The Pound Sterling is rallying back above 1.2000 after the release of mixed economic data out of the United States (US), weighed on the US Dollar (USD). At the same time, a risk-on impulse keeps European and US equities trading with gains ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) last meeting minutes. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2051 after hitting a daily low of 1.1872.

US economic data was mixed, undermining the US Dollar

Data released from the US came mixed, undermining the US Dollar. The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer sentiment came at 56.9, above estimates but below the preliminary reading of November. Delving into the report, 1-year inflation expectations were lowered from 5.1% to 4.9%, while the 5-10 year horizon remained unchanged at 3.0%. Meanwhile, US New Home Sales surprisingly jumped to 632K from 570K, even though higher mortgage rates, nearly 7%, were sparked by the Federal Reserve tightening monetary conditions,

Earlier, S&P Global reported that October’s Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs for the US, are flashing a recession, remaining each at 47.6, 46.1, and 46.3, respectively. The biggest plunge was observed in the Manufacturing index, diving from 50.4 in the previous reading and below estimates of 50.

Before Wall Street opened, the US Department of Commerce revealed that Durable Good Orders in October rose by 1%, vs. 0.4% estimates, smashing September’s 0.3% figure while excluding transportation, the so-called core Durable Good Orders, climbed 0.5% above forecasts. At the same time, the US Department of Labor (DoL) revealed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 19 increased to 240K, above estimates of 225K, amidst a period of high-tech companies laying off workers.

That said, the GBP/USD jumped from around 1.1950 to its new three-month high at 1.2080, a level last seen on August 17, 2022. The US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value against six peers, dives 0.72%, down to 106.374.

Data revealed during the European session showed that the UK S&P Global/CIPS PMIs were unchanged, at contractionary territory, further cementing the case of an economic contraction. After the Bank of England (BoE) revealed its latest monetary policy report, policymakers expressed that the UK was already in a recession.

What to watch

Traders’ focus shifts to the release of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the November meeting. Analysts are searching for clues about how high policymakers expect rates to go, how many participants support that view, and how many support a slowdown in rate increases.

GBP/USD Key Technical Levels