- GBP/USD struggles to capitalize on its gains registered over the past three days.
- BoE Governor predicted four rate cuts in 2025 and weigh on the British Pound.
- Subdued USD price action could support the pair ahead of the US NFP report.
The GBP/USD pair oscillates in a range below mid-1.2700s during the Asian session on Friday and consolidates its recent gains registered over the past three days, to over a three-week high touched the previous day. Traders now seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for the release of the crucial US monthly employment details later today.
The popularly known Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be looked upon for the interest rate outlook in the US and guide the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers on their next policy decision at the December meeting. This, in turn, will help determine the near-term trajectory for the US Dollar (USD) and provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair. In the meantime, the recent decline in the US Treasury bond yields fails to assist the USD attract any meaningful buyers or recover from a multi-week low.
That said, expectations that the US central bank will adopt a cautious stance on cutting rates, amid hopes that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies will boost inflation, act as a tailwind for the buck. Apart from this, a softer risk tone and persistent geopolitical tensions benefit the safe-haven USD. This, along with Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey's signal for four interest rate cuts in 2025, holds back traders from placing bullish bets around the British Pound (GBP) and caps the GBP/USD pair.
Nevertheless, spot prices seem poised to register modest gains for the second straight week, though any further move up is more likely to confront stiff barrier near a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average S(AM), around the 1.2820 area. This further makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the GBP/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for an extension of the recent goodish recovery from sub-1.2500 levels, or a multi-month low touched in November.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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