GBP/USD climbs back closer to 1.3100, upside seems limited ahead of UK data/US CPI

GBP/USD attracts some buyers on Wednesday amid a modest USD decline.
The fundamental backdrop warrants before placing aggressive bullish bets.
Traders might also prefer to wait for the release of the crucial US CPI report.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair regains positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday and climbs to a fresh daily peak, closer to the 1.3100 round-figure mark in the last hour. Spot prices, however, remain below the overnight swing high, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery from a three-week low, around the 1.3050-1.3045 region touched the previous day.

The US Dollar (USD) stalls its positive trend witnessed over the past three days and retreats from the vicinity of the monthly top amid the prospects for an imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy-easing cycle in September. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor lending some support to the GBP/USD pair. That said, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets could help limit losses for the Greenback and cap the currency pair amid bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will announce more interest rate cuts this year.

The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Tuesday that the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits increased by 23.7K in August as compared to the 102.3K previous and well below the 95.5K expected. Adding to this, the ILO Unemployment Rate expectedly ticked lower from 4.2% to 4.1% in the three months to July. That said, a slowdown in the UK wage growth was seen as positive news for inflation and might provide the UK central bank with increased confidence regarding cutting interest rates further.

Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bullish bets around the British Pound (GBP) ahead of the UK data dump, including the monthly GDP print, and the latest US consumer inflation figures. The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path. This, in turn, will drive the USD demand in the near term and provide a fresh directional impetus to the GBP/USD pair.

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (MoM)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

EUR/USD edges lower below 1.1650 as Middle East tensions fuel US Dollar strength

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1635 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar strengthens against the Euro as escalating Middle East conflict boosts safe-haven flows. Traders brace for the Eurozone Retail Sales and US weekly Initial Jobless Claims reports, which will be released later on Thursday.

GBP/USD tests key moving averages as growth downgrade weighs

GBP/USD was nearly flat on Wednesday, edging up 0.08% to settle around 1.3370 in a quiet session. The pair has fallen sharply from its late-January high near 1.3870 and is now testing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, with this week's one-week forex heatmap showing Pound Sterling as one of the worst performers against the US Dollar, down about 1.4% on the week.