Olivier Vigna, Economist at HSBC, suggests that their central scenario is unchanged as the polls show Le Pen will lose in the 2nd round.

Key Quotes

“To date, no poll has indicated that National Front leader Le Pen will win the French presidential election on 7 May. Polls do suggest she may win the first round (23 April), but say she will then be defeated in the run-off, either by the centrist independent Emmanuel Macron or the centre-right Republican Francois Fillon, despite his recent difficulties.”

But a number of important events in the next few weeks could change this

  • There is still a chance that socialist Benoit Hamon and far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon may join forces and seek to combine their votes into a single ticket. If so, this would increase their chances of reaching the second round. This scenario would result in a run-off between a far-right and a far-left candidate. 
  • Other key variables may also include potential swings in public opinion between now and 7 May, voter turnout and vote transfers. In particular, any event affecting core concerns (employment, social security, crime, terrorism) could impact voters’ preferences all the way up to the very last days of the campaign.”

“The National Assembly may play a bigger-than-expected role in French policies

  • Mr Macron has no political party to back him in Parliament. If he won, he would therefore need the support of large number of lawmakers from other parties to support his policies. 
  • Mr Fillon may also face challenges to push through his agenda. On 1 March, he announced that he may be placed under formal investigation by judges on 15 March, two days before the deadline for applications. If elected, he would have presidential immunity. But his image and overall support may have suffered from the allegations over misuse of public funds that prompted the investigation. News reports (BBC) on 5 March indicated that senior Republican party members would meet on 6 March to discuss whether he should continue his campaign.   
  • If elected, Marine Le Pen would also need to negotiate with other better-anchored political parties in the Lower House. The National Front had only 2 out of 577 MPs in the last 2012 parliamentary elections and so gaining a large number of seats would require a significant turnaround. For the National Assembly to pass a confidence vote in a Le Pen government, she may need to compromise with lawmakers from other parties. Without it, she could receive a censure vote, forcing her to change her choice of prime minister to one backed by the National Assembly. Therefore, a ‘cohabitation’ in the event of a Le Pen presidency looks very likely.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD loses recovery momentum after testing 1.0200

EUR/USD loses recovery momentum after testing 1.0200

EUR/USD has lost its momentum after having climbed toward 1.0200 during the European trading hours on Wednesday. As investors wait for the FOMC to release the minutes of its July meeting, the dollar consolidates its daily gains, allowing the pair to hold above 1.0150.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD retreats to 1.2050 area ahead of FOMC Minutes

GBP/USD retreats to 1.2050 area ahead of FOMC Minutes

GBP/USD has reversed its direction after having recovered toward 1.2100 in the second half of the day on Wednesday and retreated toward 1.2050. The risk-averse market environment makes it difficult for the pair to gain traction as focus shifts to FOMC Minutes.

GBP/USD News

Gold pushes lower toward $1,760 as US yields extend rally

Gold pushes lower toward $1,760 as US yields extend rally

Gold continues to decline toward $1,760 during the American trading hours on Wednesday. Before the FOMC releases the July meeting minutes, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up more than 3% on the day above 2.9%, weighing heavily on XAU/USD.

Gold News

Will the FOMC minutes make or break Bitcoin’s uptrend?

Will the FOMC minutes make or break Bitcoin’s uptrend?

Ahead of the FOMC minutes release Bitcoin withdrawal from exchanges continued. Proponents expect the market to react to signs Fed members will continue with more aggressive interest rate hikes, increasing the pressure on Bitcoin price. 

Read more

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

Tap into our 20 years Forex trading experience and get ahead of the markets. Maximize our actionable content, be part of our community, and chat with our experts. Join FXStreet Premium today!

BECOME PREMIUM

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures