France: Lockdown extension could see GDP falling by 20% in Q2 – ABN Amro


France’s lockdown is now scheduled to continue until at least 11 May, which is roughly four weeks longer than the original end date of 15 April. Aline Schuiling, a Senior Economist at ABN Amro, forecast the growth outlook for the French economy. 

Key quotes

“Using the methodology of the BdF, we have estimated what the impact of the extension of the lockdowns until 11 May would be, and found that GDP will contract by about 12.5% in Q2 and that annual growth in 2020 would be around -6%.”

“A much sharper contraction of GDP in Q2 (of around 20% qoq – non-annualised!) seems to be on the cards, which would reduce annual growth in 2020 to around -7.5%. This is in line with the French government’s newly published estimate of -8% for this year.”

 

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