Forex Today: USD/JPY cheers risk-on, German ZEW, UK CBI on tap

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today witnessed yet another quiet Asian session, as the economic calendar was absolutely data-dry, offering little trading impetus across the financial markets. Among the Asia-pac currencies, the Yen emerged the weakest, as markets corrected a part of yesterday’s rally amid improved risk sentiment, while higher Treasury yields also provided the much-needed respite to the USD/JPY pair. The Antipodeans defended the bids, as broad based US dollar strength overshadowed modest gains seen in oil and copper prices.

Meanwhile, the Asian traders digested Trump’s overnight plans announced to increase US military presence in Afghanistan contrary to his campaign pledge, while the North Korean tensions took a temporary back seat.

Main topics in Asia

Top US military commanders to issue warning to North Korea - Yonhap

As per Yonhap report, “three top U.S. military commanders plan to issue a strong warning message to North Korea in rare joint press availability here [South Korea] later today”.

Brexit: Chinese investment in London commercial property tripled since referendum - Reuters

As per Reuters report, “Chinese investment in London commercial property has more than trebled since Britain voted to leave the European Union, most of it channelled through Hong Kong.

Japan’s Ticket Camp accepts Bitcoin as a form of payment

Bitcoin continues to gain ground in the day-to-day life in Japan. Major customer-to-customer ticket exchange marketplace, Ticket Camp, now accepts the virtual currency as a form of payment.

Kuwait OilMin: OPEC will discuss extending or ending output cuts at November meeting

Kuwait Oil Minister was out on the wires earlier today, via Kuwait TV, noting that the OPEC will discuss extending or ending production cuts at November meeting.

Key Focus ahead

Later today, we have the Swiss trade balance due to be reported ahead of the European opening bells, while the European session sees the releases of the German and Eurozone ZEW surveys. From the UK docket, the public sector net borrowing and CBI industrial order expectations data will be published.

During the NA session, the Canadian retail sales data will hog the limelight, as the US docket offers a couple of second-liner data in the HPI and Richmond manufacturing Index.

EUR/USD - Focus on trend line hurdle & Zew survey, risk reversal remain negative

The EUR/USD rose to 1.1828 on Monday following the last week’s repeated failure on the part of the bears to keep the pair below 1.1720 levels.

GBP/USD awaits range breakout, eyes CBI data

GBP/USD regained bid tone on Monday as suggested by the options activity, although the bullish move ran out of steam near Friday’s high of 1.2918.

Market movers for the week ahead - Rabobank

This week’s data calendar certainly leaves a lot of room for other events, be it political, monetary or, indeed, of a super-human nature, according to Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Monday, Aug 21
10:00	EUR German Buba Monthly Report
n/a	EUR Current Account Balance	€-1.420B		€-1.056B
12:30	USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index	-0.01		0.16 Revised from 0.13
12:30	CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM)	-0.5%	-0.2%	0.9%
13:00	EUR Consumer Confidence Index	2		2
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction	1.115%		1.115%
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction	1.000%		1.015%
Tuesday, Aug 22
04:00	IDR Bank Indonesia Rate			5.5%
04:30	EUR Consumer Confidence Adj	26		25
04:30	EUR Consumer Spending Volume	2.2%		2.5% Revised from 2.2%
06:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			8.7%
06:00	CHF Trade Balance		2,880M	2,813M
06:00	CHF Imports (MoM)			15,926M
06:00	CHF Exports (MoM)			18,738M
07:00	DKK Retail Sales (YoY)			0.5%
07:00	HUF Gross Wages (YoY)			12.9%
08:30	GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing		£0.400B	£6.278B
08:30	HKD Consumer Price Index			1.9%
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Current Situation		85.5	86.4
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment		15.0	17.5
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment		34.2	35.6
n/a	EUR 9-Month Letras Auction			-0.391%
n/a	EUR 3-Month Letras Auction			-0.488%
10:00	GBP CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM)		10	10
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply			7.1%
12:30	HUF MNB Interest Rate Decision		0.9%	0.9%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.0%	-0.1%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales (MoM)		0.3%	0.6%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-0.4%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			2.5%
13:00	USD Housing Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.4%
13:00	MXN Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.6%	0.6%
13:00	MXN Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		1.8%	2.7%
14:00	USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index		12	14
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			0.94%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-9.2M
Wednesday, Aug 23
00:30	JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI			52.1
05:00	SGD Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.5
n/a	NOK Labour Force Survey			4.3%
n/a	TRY Consumer Confidence			71.3
n/a	DKK Consumer Confidence			10.5
07:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		54.5	54.9
07:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		55.7	56.0
07:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		55.5	55.6
07:30	EUR Markit PMI Composite		54.7	54.7
07:30	EUR Markit Services PMI		53.4	53.1
07:30	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		57.7	58.1
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			5.1%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
08:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		55.7	55.7
08:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		56.3	56.6
08:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		55.4	55.4
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			0.49%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			0.1%
12:00	BRL Mid-month Inflation			-0.18%
n/a	PLN M3 Money Supply (YoY)			5%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (YoY)			4.1%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.1%
13:05	USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
13:30	BRL Current Account			$1,330B
13:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI		53.4	53.3
13:45	USD Markit PMI Composite			54.6
13:45	USD Markit Services PMI		54.9	54.7
14:00	USD New Home Sales (MoM)		0.613M	0.610M
14:00	USD New Home Sales Change (MoM)		0.8%	0.8%
14:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-1.9	-1.7
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			-8.945M
19:00	EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech
22:45	NZD Trade Balance (MoM)			$242M
22:45	NZD Trade Balance (YoY)			$-3.66B
22:45	NZD Exports			$4.7B
22:45	NZD Imports			$4.46B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥-145.5B
Thursday, Aug 24
24h	USD Jackson Hole Symposium
05:00	JPY Leading Economic Index			106.3
05:00	JPY Coincident Index			117.2
06:45	EUR Individual Investment (Current Year)			6%
06:45	EUR Business Climate		108	109
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		3.1%	3.0%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.9%	0.8%
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			3.2%
07:00	EUR Export Prices (YoY)			3.6%
07:00	EUR Import Prices (YoY)			8.1%
n/a	SEK Consumer Confidence (MoM)			102.2
07:15	CHF Industrial Production (YoY)			-4.6%
07:15	CHF Industrial Production (QoQ)			-1.6%
07:30	SEK Unemployment Rate			7.4%
08:00	PLN Unemployment (MoM)			7.1%
08:30	GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals			40.2K
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		1.7%	1.7%
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.3%	0.3%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ)			0.6%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (YoY)			0.7%
08:30	GBP Index of Services (3M/3M)			0.4%
10:00	GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM)			22%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.953M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		239K	232K
13:00	MXN 1st half-month Core Inflation			0.19%
n/a	MXN 1st half-month Inflation			0.24%
13:00	EUR Leading Indicator			-1.5
n/a	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$419.9B
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)		5.57M	5.52M
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)		0.7%	-1.8%
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			53B
15:00	USD Kansas Fed manufacturing activity			4
21:00	KRW Consumer Sentiment Index			111.2
23:30	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.1%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)		0.3%	0.2%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)			-0.1%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)		0.5%	0.4%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.4%
23:50	JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY)			0.8%
Friday, Aug 25
24h	USD Jackson Hole Symposium
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	-1.1%
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (YoY)		2.3%	2.5%
06:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.6%	0.6%
06:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		2.1%	0.8%
06:45	EUR Producer Prices (MoM)			-0.4%
06:45	EUR Consumer Confidence		104	104
n/a	EUR Industrial Production (YoY)			3.6%
07:00	EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks at Jackson Hole
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.8%
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (YoY)			4.8%
08:00	EUR IFO - Business Climate		115.5	116.0
08:00	EUR IFO - Current Assessment		125.0	125.4
08:00	EUR IFO - Expectations		106.8	107.3
n/a	TRY Manufacturing Confidence			109.5
n/a	TRY Capacity Utilization			78.7%
n/a	INR FX Reserves, USD			$393.61B
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders		-5.5%	6.5%
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation			0.2%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate s.a			3.3%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate			3.3%
16:00	USD Fed's Yellen Speech
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			763
n/a	ARS Trade Balance (MoM)			$-748M
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			463.5K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$187.7K
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$150.2K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-31.9K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-77.5K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€79.3K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$59.6K
Saturday, Aug 26
24h	USD Jackson Hole Symposium

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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