Forex Today: Mood sours to start the data-packed week

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 13:

Markets remain risk-averse early Monday as investors keep an eye on geopolitics while refraining from taking large positions ahead of this week's key events. In the absence of high-tier data releases, risk perception should continue to drive the market action in the remainder of the day.

On Friday, the data published by the University of Michigan revealed that the year-ahead inflation expectation component of the Consumer Sentiment Survey rose to 4.2% in early February from 3.9% in January. This data helped the US Dollar preserve its strength against its rivals late Friday and the US Dollar Index (DXY) closed the second straight week in positive territory. In the European morning, DXY clings to small daily gains near 103.70 and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady above 3.7%. Reflecting the cautious mood, US stock index futures are down between 0.25% and 0.35%.

Meanwhile, the US military reportedly shot down an unidentified object, the third one since the downing of the Chinese balloon, flying above Michigan on Sunday.

EUR/USD lost over 100 pips last week and stays in a consolidation phase below 1.0700 on Monday. On Tuesday, Eurostat will publish the Employment Change and Gross Domestic Product data for the fourth quarter.

Following last week's sharp decline, GBP/USD moves sideways at around 1.2050 to start the week.

AUD/USD holds steady slightly above 0.6900. In the early trading hours of the Asian session on Tuesday, National Australia Bank's Business Confidence data will be watched upon for fresh impetus alongside Westpac Consumer Confidence Index.

Despite the broad-based US Dollar strength, USD/CAD fell over 100 pips on Friday. The monthly data published by Statistics Canada showed that Net Change Employment was up 150,000 in January, compared to the market expectation of 15,000, and provided a boost to the Canadian Dollar.

Following Friday's volatile action, USD/JPY gathered bullish momentum early Monday and was last seen trading near 132.20, where it was up more than 0.5% on a daily basis. Reuters reported on Monday that Japan's Upper House of Parliament has scheduled confirmation hearings on government nominees for the new Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor and his two deputies on February 27. Markets widely expect the Japanese government to formally nominate Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday, February 14.

Pressured by rising US Treasury bond yields, Gold price stayed on the back foot ahead of the weekend and failed to stage a rebound. In the early European morning, XAU/USD fluctuates in a tight range slightly above $1,860.

Bitcoin stayed relatively quiet over the weekend but ended the second straight week in negative territory, losing around 5%. BTC/USD trades up and down in a narrow channel below $22,000 early Monday. Ethereum stays in a consolidation phase and trades at around $1,500.

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.1600 as USD rebounds

EUR/USD trades marginally lower below 1.1600 in the European session on Friday. The pair edges down as the US Dollar rebounds slightly after Thursday’s massive profit-taking pullback. Looming US-Iran uncertainty revives the haven demand for the Greenback, while the Euro takes a breather after the hawkish ECB hike-led rally.

GBP/USD holds steady above 1.3400 ahead of US sentiment data

GBP/USD recovers losses and trades modestly flat above 1.3400 in the European trading hours on Friday. The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.1% in April, limiting the pair's upside amid renewed US Dollar weakness. The focus now remains on the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.

Gold flatlines above $4,200; bearish bias intact amid US-Iran risks

,Gold recovers modest intraday losses, and turns flat during the first half of the European session, though it remains below the daily peak. Despite uncertainty over the US-Iran peace deal, a steadier mood fails to help the US Dollar in preserving its gains. This is seen as a key factor offering some support to the commodity.

Pi Network: Bulls attempt comeback as bearish strength fades

Pi Network (PI) is trading at around $0.120 after a modest recovery the previous day. Despite this recent rebound, traders should be cautious as a scheduled unlock of 14.8 million PI tokens on Friday could limit the token's recovery potential by increasing market supply. Meanwhile, the technical outlook is showing early signs of fading bearish momentum, suggesting a short-term bounce.

Week ahead – Central bank barrage ahead: Fed, BoJ, RBA, SNB and BoE in focus

The US dollar outperformed most of its major counterparts this week, with investors remaining convinced that the Fed may need to press the rate hike button before the end of this year. Fed hike bets were significantly bolstered after the US jobs report for May came in much stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls rising to 172k and confounding expectations of a much more modest 85k gain.

4.2% headline, 0.2% core: Why the Fed's next hike may be targeting the wrong problem

May's CPI put headline inflation at 4.2% on the year, up from 3.8% in April and the hottest reading since April 2023, while core prices rose just 0.2% on the month, undershooting the 0.3% consensus and halving April's pace.