Forex Today: Fresh Brexit risks pound GBP, Aussie hit by RBA; UK jobs next of note

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, December 17:

Fresh Brexit fears: UK press reported overnight that PM Johnson will set a new deadline to prevent any extension of the Brexit transition period beyond 2020. Hard Brexit fears resurfaced thereafter and pounded the Sterling. GBP/USD quickly eroded nearly 100-pips and fell sharply below 1.3300. Heading into Europe, Cable reverses half the slide and looks to regain 1.3300. Meanwhile, Johnson is considering a big overhaul of the House of Lords, FT reported. Focus on UK Employment data and BOE Governor Carney’s speech ahead.

Trade deal skepticism: US-China Phase One trade deal optimism faded, despite assurances from the White House that deal with China is done. The skepticism is mainly in light of Beijing's reticence in acknowledging specifics laid out by the US.

The US dollar was broadly bid, helped by the slump in GBP/USD. EUR/USD remained trapped below the 200-DMA at 1.1153. Meanwhile. USD/JPY traded modestly flat above 109.50. The Aussie was pressured to near 0.6860 region on dovish RBA’s December meeting’s minutes while the Kiwi benefited from a lift in New Zealand’s Business Confidence.

Among related markets, Asian stocks tracked the Wall Street rally while Treasury yields dropped over 1%. Gold kept its recent range around $ 1475 while both crude benchmarks traded little changed near three-month tops ahead of API weekly Crude Stocks data.

Cryptocurrencies consolidated the overnight slump, with Bitcoin licking its wounds sub-$ 6,900.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold stalls recovery from three-month low as Fed hike bets and USD uptick cap gains

Gold struggles to capitalize on a modest intraday bounce from levels below the $4,000 psychological mark, or a three-month low set during the Asian session, and sticks to a negative tone for the second straight day. The Federal Reserve recently signaled that there is no urgency to raise interest rates. Traders, however, are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple rebound as major support levels cap recent sell-off

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple rebound modestly on Friday after correcting and testing their key support zone the previous day. BTC holds the 50-day EMA, ETH finds support around the 100-day EMA, while XRP holds the horizontal floor near $1.300. The price action of these top three cryptocurrencies suggests a recovery if this critical support zone holds; a decisive close below these levels suggests a deeper correction.

The week ahead – UK budget, Shell, BP and HSBC and NatWest results

Financial markets have undergone another turbulent week with concerns about public sector debt levels, the impact of energy policy and higher oil and gas prices, and what events in France might mean for the UK economy going forward.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.