Forex Today: Dollar corrects from 2021 highs, risk mood improves to start the week

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Monday, November 15:

The dollar registered impressive gains against its rivals last week but seems to have opened on the back foot on Monday with the US Dollar Index retreating to 95.00 area. The cautiously optimistic market mood and falling US Treasury bond yields make it difficult for the greenback to find demand. Investors await the euro area Trade Balance report and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

The data from China revealed on Monday that Retail Sales expanded by 4.9% on a yearly basis in October, surpassing the market expectation of 3.5%. Additionally, Industrial Production grew by 3.5% in the same period, compared to analysts' estimate of 3%. Despite the upbeat data releases, the Shanghai Composite Index is trading flat on the day. The Nikkei 225 is up 0.5% and US stocks futures are posting modest gains in the early European session.

According to Xinhua News Agency, US-China Business Council urged the US to cut tariffs and said tariff costs compounded by inflation was posing a significant burden to the US economy. Later in the day, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have a virtual meeting.

EUR/USD touched its lowest level since July 2020 at 1.1432 on Friday and seems to have gone into a consolidation phase above 1.1450 on Monday. In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, the pair's action could remain subdued for the remainder of the day.

GBP/USD trades in the positive territory above 1.3400 at the start of the week. The UK and the EU will engage in talks this week to try and resolve the issues surrounding Brexit's Northern Ireland protocol.

USD/JPY fluctuates in a relatively tight range around 114.00. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said earlier in the day that they won't wind down or abandon the easy monetary policy even if consumer inflation in Japan climbs to 1%. Meanwhile, the data from Japan showed that the Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.8% on a quarterly basis in the third quarter.

Gold gained more than 2% last week with the precious metal finding demand as an inflation hedge. XAU/USD is edging lower on Monday but staying afloat above $1,850.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin managed to register modest gains over the weekend and trades around $65,000 on Monday. Ethereum pushed lower in the previous couple of days but seems to have found support around $4,500. As of writing, ETH was up 1.7% on the day at $4,700.

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

AUD/USD bulls seem hesitant below 0.7050 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD reverses an Asian session dip on Monday as renewed optimism over Iran diplomacy boosts investor confidence, keeping a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar and supporting the risk-sensitive Aussie. Spot prices, however, remain below the one-month high, touched last Thursday, as bulls wait for the crucial RBA decision before taking fresh positions.

USD/JPY climbs to 158.00 neighborhood as BoJ uncertainty weighs on the JPY

The USD/JPY pair gains some positive traction at the start of a new week, recovering further from Friday's post-Bank of Japan (BoJ) swing low to sub-157.00 levels. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 158.00 neighborhood during the Asian session and seems unaffected by fresh intervention warning from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

Gold rebounds to near $3,900 as Fed hike bets cap upside

Gold price edges at the start of a new week, reclaiming $3,900 during the Asian session and reversing a part of Friday's heavy losses to its lowest level since October 2025. The upside potential, however, seems limited as elevated oil prices and inflation concerns keep Fed rate hike bets firmly on the table.

Zcash rebounds as ZODL founder now supports ending community grants

Zcash (ZEC) shows signs of recovery on Monday, extending gains above $1,250 as the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL) founder, Josh Swihart, now supports the compromise proposal to end the 8% block reward share directed to Zcash Community Grants (ZCG).

Middle East War updates: Iran warns of expanded strikes against US despite progress in talks

Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.