Forex Today: Aussie dumped on Aus retail sales miss, UK PMI, NFP on tap


Forex today was a quiet affair in Asia, with the Japanese traders celebrating Culture Day. In terms of the economic release, we had a big miss on the Australian retail sales data, which weighed down heavily on the Aussie. Meanwhile, the Kiwi benefited from stronger Chinese services PMI data and broadly subdued US dollar, as Treasury yields dropped on the back of tax reforms uncertainty. Amongst commodities, gold treaded water ahead of the NFP release, while oil prices traded with modest gains, with Brent nearing $ 61 barrier.

Main topics in Asia

Australia retail sales growth stalls in September

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data released today showed consumption as represented by the retail sales remained flat in September. Retail sales came-in at 0.0% m/m vs. 0.4% expected and -0.5% previous. 

China’s Caixin Services PMI rises beyond expectations in October

China’s Caixin October Services PMI came in at 51.2 vs 50.6 last and 50.8 expectations.

South Korea is considering its own sanctions against North Korea - Yonhap

Yonhap report says, "South Korea has begun considering its own sanctions against North Korea, along with ways to effectively and faithfully implement international sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council."

Spanish court yet to issue arrest warrant for Catalan ex-leader - TASS

The Spanish court officials told TASS (Russian news agency) on Friday, Spain's national judicial board, Audiencia National, is yet to decide whether to issue an international arrest warrant for deposed Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont.

Key Focus ahead

Heading into Europe, we have no major macro data to be reported except for the UK services PMI report, and hence, attention turns towards the NA session, with the US and Canadian employment data slated for release, followed by the US trade balance, factory orders, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI data. Also, the speech by the FOMC member Kashkari will be closely eyed.

GBP/USD - Bearish continuation pattern confirmed, eyes UK services PMI

GBP/USD closed below 100-day MA on Thursday, courtesy of the Bank of England's (BOE) dovish rate hike. The spot closed at 1.3058 and traded around 1.3070 in Asia.

EUR/USD: Further upside still in play ahead of NFP?

After hitting fresh one-week highs at 1.1687 yesterday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated the gains in Asia, as the bulls take a breather and await the US payroll data for fresh direction.

US nonfarm payrolls seen firmer at +340k in October – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs’ economists present a brief preview of what to expect from today’s US labor market release due on the cards at 1230 GMT.

What’s Next for the dollar?

There remains a high level of uncertainty around tax reform but USD picture remains guardedly optimistic based on the fact that something is better than nothing when it comes to lower taxes.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Friday, Nov 03
09:30
 
53.3
53.6
12:30
 
34.4
34.4
12:30
 
 
2.9%
12:30
 
312K
-33K
12:30
 
0.3%
0.5%
12:30
 
 
63.1%
12:30
 
4.2%
4.2%
12:30
 
$-43.2B
$-42.4B
12:30
 
 
$47.04B
12:30
 
 
$43.63B
12:30
 
$-3.00B
$-3.41B
12:30
 
 
65.6%
12:30
 
15K
10K
12:30
 
6.2%
6.2%
14:45
 
55.9
55.9
14:45
 
 
55.7
15:00
 
58.6
59.8
15:00
 
1.3%
1.2%
16:15
 
 
17:00
 
 
737
19:30
 
 
446.8K
19:30
 
 
$191.4K
19:30
 
 
£-1.5K
19:30
 
 
€83.5K
19:30
 
 
$57.3K

 

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