Forex Today: Antipodeans hit by fresh trade woes; Draghi, US CPI eyed


A sense of caution prevailed across the financial markets in Wednesday’s Asian trading, as markets remained wary amid the latest tough stance adopted by the White House on China. The US President Trump said on Tuesday that he had no interest in moving ahead unless Beijing agrees again to four or five "major points" that Trump, however, did not specify. As a result, the demand for the safe-havens was lifted at the expense of the risk/ higher-yielding assets.

Among the G10 currencies, the Antipodeans were dragged lower by weak fundamentals and softer risk tones. The Kiwi fell further below the 0.66 handle after New Zealand’s retail spending fell by 0.5% in May. The Aussie hit fresh weekly lows sub-0.6950 following the second consecutive fall in the consumer confidence gauge. Both the OZ currencies failed to benefit from the in-line with estimates Chinese inflation figures and record higher iron-ore prices. The Yen traded on the front foot alongside gold prices, keeping USD/JPY under pressure below the 100-day SMA at 108.65. The Loonie traded firmer just shy of the 1.33 handle amid a sell-off in oil prices.

Meanwhile, both the European currency pairs, EUR/USD and Cable traded modestly flat amid a broadly subdued US dollar and negative Treasury yields.

Main Topics in Asia

Boris Johnson faces Remainer plot to thwart no-deal Brexit – The UK Telegraph

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China Securities Journal: China has room for further targeted RRR cuts

Chinese CPI/PPI arrives in line with expectations

BOK's Lee hints at rate cut amid heightened external uncertainties

Japan PM Abe: Will exchange opinions with Iran’s leaders to ease tensions

Asian stocks trade mixed as China reports inflation at 15-month high

Gold: Buyers dominate around $1333 amid Hong Kong Protests, China data

Indonesian consumer confidence improves slightly in May, Rupiah unfazed

USD/INR: Rupee volatility hits lowest since August 2018

One-month HKD HIBOR rises to 2.42%, highest since October 2008

Fitch affirms Hong Kong at ‘AA+’, outlook ‘Stable’

Key Focus Ahead

There is nothing much of note, in terms of the economic news, from the Euroland today, except for the Spanish Inflation numbers and French Q1 payrolls. Therefore, all eyes will be on the speech by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi (due at 0815 GMT) and the eventual impact on the Euro, especially after the US President Trump noted on Tuesday that ‘the Euro and other currencies are devalued against the US dollar’.  Further, markets will also focus on the UK Parliament, the leadership race and Brexit developments amid a data-empty UK docket. Also, of relevance will be the speech by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymaker Ellis at 0900 GMT, as we head towards the Australian jobs data due on Thursday.

The NA session offers the much-awaited US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the month of May at 1230 GMT, with the annualized core figures likely to stay unchanged while the headline numbers are expected to soften slightly. Among other releases, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly crude stocks data will drop in at 1430 GMT. At 1500 GMT, ECB’s Coeure’s speech will also draw some attention. The US monthly Budget Statement will be published later on at 1800 GMT.

Traders will also remain at the mercy of any tweets from the Trump, concerning the US-China trade spat that could have a major impact on the risk sentiment.

EUR/USD: Focus on Draghi’s speech and US CPI

EUR/USD is consolidating above 1.13 ahead of Draghi’s speech and key US data releases. The gains in the spot, however, will likely be short-lived, if the US reports a better-than-expected consumer price inflation for May at 12:30 GMT today. 

GBP/USD trades modestly flat as traders await US CPI amid UK’s political play

While British lawmakers’ run to become the next PM remains surrounded by long-standing Brexit worries, traders weigh lack of UK data ahead of the London open this Wednesday.

Why US inflation may badly disappoint and down the dollar – FXStreet Surprise Index

The next top-tier indicator is the consumer price index release for May due on Wednesday, June 12th. Core CPI is set to rise by 2.1% year on year – repeating last month's figure – while accelerating from 0.1% to 0.2% on a monthly basis.

Australia: Weak employment data to underscore risks of a July RBA rate cut - NAB

Analysts at National Australia Bank (NAB) offer their expectations on Thursday’s Australian labor market report and its implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Tuesday, Jun 11
23:50
2.5%
-5.3%
-0.7%
23:50
5.2%
-0.8%
3.8%
23:50
-0.1%
0.0%
0.3%
23:50
0.7%
0.7%
1.2%
Wednesday, Jun 12
24h
 
 
00:30
-0.6%
 
0.6%
01:30
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
01:30
0.6%
0.6%
0.9%
01:30
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
03:00
6.9%
 
6.5%
05:00
 
0%
1%
05:00
 
0.3%
-1.0%
05:30
 
0.3%
0.3%
07:00
 
0.9%
0.9%
07:00
 
0.2%
0.2%
07:00
 
0.8%
0.8%
07:00
 
0.2%
0.2%
07:00
 
3.9%
4.1%
08:15
 
 
09:00
 
 
09:00
 
 
11:00
 
 
1.5%
11:00
 
24%
24%
11:00
 
1.2%
0.2%
12:00
 
0.8%
0.3%
12:00
 
 
3.6%
12:00
 
 
-0.4%
12:00
 
0.9%
-0.1%
12:30
 
 
261.735
12:30
 
255.820
255.548
12:30
 
0.1%
0.3%
12:30
 
0.2%
0.1%
12:30
 
1.9%
2.0%
12:30
 
2.1%
2.1%
14:15
 
 
14:30
 
-0.472M
6.771M
n/a
 
 
-14.25B
15:00
 
 
n/a
 
 
2.892%
17:00
 
 
2.479%
18:00
 
$-185.5B
$160.0B
23:01
 
-21%
-23%
23:50
 
4.5
-7.3
23:50
 
 
¥441.7B
23:50
 
 
¥-285.9B
Thursday, Jun 13
24h
 
 
00:00
 
 
3.3%
00:30
 
65.8%
65.8%
01:30
 
5.1%
5.2%
01:30
 
17.5K
28.4K
01:30
 
 
-6.3K
01:30
 
 
34.7K
n/a
 
8.6%
8.5%
n/a
 
1,225B
1,020B
n/a
 
 
6.4%
02:30
 
2.2%
2.2%
04:30
 
0.4%
-0.4%
04:30
 
 
2.9%
04:30
 
 
06:00
 
1.4%
1.4%
06:00
 
0.3%
0.3%
06:00
 
0.2%
0.2%
06:00
 
1.3%
1.3%
06:00
 
 
0.3%
06:30
 
-0.6%
-0.6%
06:30
 
0%
0%
07:30
 
-0.75%
-0.75%
07:30
 
 
08:00
 
 
0.21B
08:00
 
 
09:00
 
-0.5%
-0.6%
09:00
 
-0.5%
-0.3%
10:00
 
 
0.4%
10:00
 
 
1.7%
10:00
 
 
1.7%
10:00
 
 
0.4%
11:30
 
 
$-4.3B
11:30
 
 
$-16.9B
12:30
 
217K
218K
12:30
 
1.680M
1.682M
12:30
 
-0.1%
0.2%
12:30
 
0.4%
-0.2%
12:30
 
-0.2%
0.2%
12:30
 
-0.5%
0.3%
12:30
 
 
0.1%
12:30
 
0%
0%
13:00
 
 
$495.2B
14:30
 
95B
119B
15:30
 
 
2.29%
19:00
 
 
3.2%
21:00
 
3.0%
4.8%
21:00
 
0.0%
-0.4%
22:30
 
54.4
53.0
22:45
 
0.4%
-0.1%
Friday, Jun 14
02:00
 
8.1%
7.2%
02:00
 
5.5%
5.4%
02:00
 
 
02:00
 
6.1%
6.1%
04:30
 
 
-1.1%
04:30
 
 
0.6%
04:30
 
 
-0.4%
04:30
 
 
1.1%
05:00
 
 
1.1%
05:00
 
 
€-0.5B
05:00
 
 
1.5%
06:00
 
 
2.1%
06:00
 
 
0.6%
06:30
 
3.10%
3.07%
06:45
 
1.1%
1.1%
06:45
 
0.2%
0.2%
07:00
 
$-0.980B
$-0.589B
07:00
 
0.3%
0.2%
07:00
 
0.1%
0.2%
07:00
 
2.0%
1.9%
07:00
 
2.6%
2.3%
07:30
 
0.1%
0.7%
07:30
 
2.0%
2.1%
08:00
 
0.9%
0.3%
08:00
 
2.4%
2.2%
08:00
 
-4.1%
-3.6%
08:00
 
-2.5%
1.3%
09:00
 
0.1%
0.1%
09:00
 
0.1%
0.1%
09:00
 
0.9%
0.9%
09:00
 
0.9%
0.9%
10:00
 
 
0.1%
10:00
 
 
0.5%
10:30
 
7.50%
7.75%
11:30
 
 
$421.87B
12:00
 
 
€533M
12:30
 
0.3%
0.1%
12:30
 
 
0%
12:30
 
0.6%
-0.2%
13:15
 
78.7%
77.9%
13:15
 
0.1%
-0.5%
14:00
 
98.1
100.0
14:00
 
0.4%
0.0%
15:00
 
5.8%
5.3%
15:00
 
3.7%
3.2%
17:00
 
 
789
19:30
 
 
$89.9K
19:30
 
 
$156.1K
19:30
 
 
400.2K
19:30
 
 
£-47.8K
19:30
 
 
¥-44.4K
19:30
 
 
€-87.6K
19:30
 
 
$-63.3K

 

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