FOMC outlook hasn’t materially changed during the inter-meeting period - Nomura


Share:

Analysts at Nomura explain that as expected, the FOMC raised the federal funds target range from 0.50-0.75% to 0.75-1.00% and in the press conference, Chair Yellen indicated that the economy has made solid progress toward the goals of maximum employment and 2% longer-run inflation target but she also said that the economy evolved as the FOMC had expected and their outlook hasn’t materially changed during the inter-meeting period.

Key Quotes

“Consistent with her remarks, the median of the participants’ policy rate projections (the “dots”) for 2017 and 2018 did not change from the projections in December meeting. It is important to note that there was no change to the median of the FOMC’s longer-run policy rate forecasts, implying that the participant’s estimates of neutral rate did not change materially. Yet, there were some upward shifts in the lower tail of the distribution. The 25th percentile of the distribution of 2017 and 2018 moved up slightly. Considering improvement in financial conditions and upside risks to growth, it is not surprising that the lower tail of the distribution shifted slightly toward the current medians. Only 2019 median changed, which moved up to 3% from 2.875%.”

“Consistent with Chair Yellen’s message that the economy is in line with the FOMC’s forecasts, its other economic forecasts did not change much. As expected, median core PCE inflation for 2017 increased to 1.9% from 1.8%, reflecting the recent firming of core goods prices.”

“The bottom line of message is that this decision does not reflect a “reassessment” of the economic outlook or the appropriate course for monetary policy. As the economy evolves in line with the FOMC’s expectations, it is likely that target policy rates will go up in line with the FOMC’s forecast. As such, we do not expect any acceleration in the pace of hikes as long as economic developments remain on track. As a result, we maintain our monetary policy outlook, expecting two more hikes this year and two more next year.”

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content


Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stabilizes above1.0800, looks to post weekly gains

EUR/USD stabilizes above1.0800, looks to post weekly gains

EUR/USD continues to trade in a tight channel above 1.0800 in the second half of the day on Friday, as the improving risk mood makes if difficult for the USD to gather strength. The pair remains on track to snap a five-week losing streak.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.2650

GBP/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.2650

GBP/USD trades in positive territory above 1.2650 in the American session on Friday. The bullish opening in Wall Street doesn't allow the USD to gather strength and helps the pair stay on track to close higher for the fifth consecutive day.

GBP/USD News

Gold holds steady above $2,020 as US yields edge lower

Gold holds steady above $2,020 as US yields edge lower

Gold regained its traction and stabilized above $2,020 after falling below this level during the European trading hours. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down nearly 1% on the day below 4.3%, allowing XAU/USD to keep its footing heading into the weekend.

Gold News

Ethereum price risks decline as increasing exchange supply raises chances of profit taking

Ethereum price risks decline as increasing exchange supply raises chances of profit taking

Ethereum price crossed $3,000 several times this week but the altcoin failed to sustain above this key level, raising concerns regarding its price trend. ETH price faces the risk of decline as the supply of the altcoin on exchanges is on the rise. 

Read more

Up go stocks, down go bonds

Up go stocks, down go bonds

We knew that yesterday was going to be a good day – at least for the stock markets, given that Nvidia defied the expectations that it would - maybe – fail to deliver $20bn sales in the latest quarter. 

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures