EUR/USD tests 1.0900, Fed Minutes reveal FOMC still focused on inflation fight

  • EUR/USD tested 1.0900 following the release of the Fed's latest Meeting Minutes.
  • The Euro has been slipping back against the US Dollar steadily on Tuesday.
  • Next Up: Wednesday's US Jobless Claims, EU Consumer Confidence.

The EUR/USD dipped into the 1.0900 handle heading into the tail end of Tuesday's trading session after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest minutes from the US central bank's October 31st - November 1st meeting revealed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains firmly committed to higher rates to combat forward-looking inflation expectations.

Markets initially twisted on release, but remain steady heading into Wednesday's trading despite the notable tonal disconnect between a hawkish Fed and broader markets' desire for a rate cut cycle to begin.

FOMC minutes: Further tightening would be appropriate if progress toward inflation objective was insufficient

with the Fed's Meeting Minutes out of the way, markets will now be turning to focus on Wednesday's US Jobless Claims and the EU's Consumer Confidence survey for November.

US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 17th are expected to retreat slightly to 225K from the previous week's multi-year high of 231K; the 4-week average for Initial Jobless Claims is currently 220.25K.

The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to slightly improve for November from 60.4 to 60.5, and US Durable Goods Orders in October are forecast to show a decline from 4.6% to -3.1%. US Inflation Expectations are also forecast to hold steady at 3.2% in November.

On the EU side, Consumer Confidence is expected to show an improvement, but only by a sliver: analysts are expecting a minor uptick from -17.9 to -17.6.

Euro price today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Pound Sterling.

USD   0.28% -0.23% -0.18% 0.10% 0.00% -0.13% -0.09%
EUR -0.29%   -0.50% -0.46% -0.21% -0.30% -0.42% -0.38%
GBP 0.23% 0.52%   0.05% 0.31% 0.23% 0.10% 0.14%
CAD 0.19% 0.47% -0.04%   0.26% 0.17% 0.05% 0.09%
AUD -0.10% 0.21% -0.30% -0.26%   -0.09% -0.21% -0.15%
JPY 0.00% 0.28% -0.22% -0.19% 0.07%   -0.15% -0.08%
NZD 0.13% 0.42% -0.09% -0.05% 0.21% 0.08%   0.04%
CHF 0.09% 0.38% -0.14% -0.10% 0.17% 0.08% -0.04%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

The Euro (USD) is currently seeing an intraday decline against the US Dollar (USD) slipping from the week's peak of 1.0965 and trading into the 1.0900 neighborhood. The EUR/USD's near-term momentum sees the pair trading into the high side, bidding well above the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) rising into 1.0820.

Tuesday's early rally saw the EUR/USD tip into its highest bids since early August, but the pair couldn't hang onto the 1.0950 level and has slipped back down, but remains firmly bullish. The pair is trading to the north side of the 200-day SMA near 1.0800 and has plenty of room to run as long as bears don't pull the pair down.

On the down side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is tapping into overbought territory on daily candlesticks, implying a pullback could find added strength.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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