EUR/USD stuck near midrange ahead of thin Thursday session

European markets to be thin on Thursday holiday.
Economic calendar limited on both sides of the Atlantic.
Broader markets continue to churn on rate cut expectations.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

EUR/USD is reverting to the near-term mean, stuck near 1.0750 and stuck firmly in the week’s opening trading range. European market flows are set to be thin on Thursday with German and French markets shuttered for the Ascension Day holiday, and US data is set to be strictly mid-tier until Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Markets will be on the lookout for speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, but ECB officials are broadly expected to avoid rocking the boat amidst holiday-constrained market flows. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 3 is expected during Thursday’s US market session, and markets are forecasting a slight uptick to week-on-week new jobless benefits claims to 210K from the previous week’s 208K.

This week’s key data release will be Friday’s US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index, which is expected to ease to 7.0 for the month of May, down slightly from the previous print’s 77.2. The UoM’s consumer outlook survey hit a two-and-a-half year high in March as the US economy continues to outperform market hopes for easing conditions to push the Federal Reserve (Fed) towards rate cuts.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD continues to drift towards median bids, pulling closer to the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0734. The pair found thin bids early Wednesday, setting an intraday high of 1.0757 before flubbing bullish momentum and ending the day near 1.0750.

Daily candles reveal a bearish technical rejection firming up as EUR/USD gets pulled down after failing to break above the 200-day EMA at 1.0788. The pair’s near-term peak sits at 1.0813, and a continuation to the downside leaves the pair exposed to a decline to the last swing low into the 1.0600 handle.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.075
Today Daily Change	-0.0005
Today Daily Change %	-0.05
Today daily open	1.0755

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0696
Daily SMA50	1.0792
Daily SMA100	1.0837
Daily SMA200	1.0795

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0787
Previous Daily Low	1.0748
Previous Weekly High	1.0812
Previous Weekly Low	1.065
Previous Monthly High	1.0885
Previous Monthly Low	1.0601
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0763
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0772
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0739
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0724
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.07
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0779
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0803
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0818

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

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