- EUR/USD sticks around 1.1000 amid obscurity over a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
- The Ukraine crisis has complicated the job of the ECB ahead of April’s monetary policy.
- The extent of the interest rate hike by the Fed largely banks upon the extent of US NFP.
The EUR/USD pair is auctioning back and forth in a narrow range of 1.0940-1.1440 since the previous week as investors are waiting for the speech from the European Central Board (ECB)’s President Christian Lagarde and the release of the European Union (EU)’s Unemployment Rate, which are due on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
The speech from the ECB’s Lagarde will provide insights into the likely monetary policy action in April. The ECB policymakers have yet not increased their interest rates, unlike the other World leaders who have already turned their interest rate cycle. The Ukraine crisis amid Russian military activity on Ukrainian land has made the context complicated for the ECB policymakers. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised fears of stagflation in Europe. Its February inflation figure at 5.9% is very much higher than the targeted figure of 2%. Therefore, ECB’s think tank will remain in dilemma whether to elevate the interest rate or to take the bullet itself.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) has rebounded sharply after sensing bids near the round level support at 99.00. Investors are eying the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for building further positions in the mighty greenback. The extent of US NFP is likely to dictate the extent of the interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) as any underperformance from the above-mentioned indicator will keep the interest rate hike in 25 basis points (bps) category.
Apart from the ECB’s Lagarde speech and US NFP, the EU’s Unemployment Rate holds significant importance. The inactive labor force rate is likely to trim to 6.7% against the previous print of 6.8%.
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