|

EUR/USD remains on the defensive below 100-DMA despite US Consumer Sentiment improvement

  • EUR/USD declines over 0.20%, hits daily low of 1.0723 post-US Nonfarm Payrolls; trims losses to 1.0767 after upbeat UoM Consumer Sentiment.
  • US Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a resilient job market, adding 199K employees, lowering the Unemployment Rate to 3.7%.
  • University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment beats estimates while inflation expectations slide.

The EUR/USD fell decently more than 0.20% during the North American session after it dived to a daily low of 1.0723 courtesy of a slid US Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, after a better-than-expected University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, the pair has trimmed some earlier losses. The major is trading at 1.0747.

EUR/USD dropped as US Nonfarm Payrolls exceed estimates, but UoM Consumer Sentiment provides relief

A busy economic calendar in the United States (US) keeps EUR/USD traders entertained. Initially, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed the economy remains resilient, as the workforce added 199K employees, exceeding the forecast of 180K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.9% to 3.7%, while the Average hourly earnings stood unchanged at 4%.

The US Dollar gathered traction on the data’s release, as the EUR/USD dropped toward its daily low before pairing those losses. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the currency’s performance against six others, registers gains of 0.40%, up at 103.07

The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment recently showed that American households had grown optimistic, snapping four months of declines. The index rose by 69.4, the highest since August, exceeding estimates of 62.0 while inflation expectations slid. Americans estimate inflation in twelve months at 3.1%, down from 4.5%, while for five years, is foreseen at 2.8%, less than November’s 3.2%.

Across the Atlantic, the inflation in Germany slowed to 2.3% as measured by the HICP, below forecasts prior’s month 3%. That has opened the door for a less hawkish reaction by the European Central Bank (ECB), which is expected to hold its monetary policy meeting next week.

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The EUR/USD daily chart portrays the pair as neutral to downward biased, with sellers in charge, as they dragged the exchange rate below the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 1.0762. A daily close below that level can pave the way toward the 50-DMA at 1.0700. A breach of the latter will expose the November 10 swing low of 1.0655. Conversely, an uptrend resumption could happen if traders reclaim the 100-DMA, opening the door for a rally to 1.0800.

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price1.0752
Today Daily Change-0.0044
Today Daily Change %-0.41
Today daily open1.0796
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.0866
Daily SMA501.07
Daily SMA1001.0767
Daily SMA2001.0822
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.0818
Previous Daily Low1.0755
Previous Weekly High1.1017
Previous Weekly Low1.0829
Previous Monthly High1.1017
Previous Monthly Low1.0517
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.0794
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.0779
Daily Pivot Point S11.0761
Daily Pivot Point S21.0727
Daily Pivot Point S31.0699
Daily Pivot Point R11.0824
Daily Pivot Point R21.0852
Daily Pivot Point R31.0886

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD drops to two-week low, further below 0.7000 after RBA's less hawkish rate hike

AUD/USD drifts lower for the second straight day on Tuesday, hitting a fresh two-week low during the Asian session after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) widely expected 25 bps rate hike. The decision was far from unanimous, with three members preferring to hold rates at 4.60%. This tempers expectations of further tightening, which, along with modest US Dollar strength, weighs on the currency pair.





USD/JPY fails near 159.00 amid weak USD, intervention risks

USD/JPY edges lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, reversing part of the previous day's gains to 158.00 as the US Dollar remains depressed amid hopes for Iran diplomacy and ahead of US midterm elections. Meanwhile, intervention risks support the Japanese Yen, though the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike caps gains. This keeps the pair confined within a familiar range and warrants caution before placing directional bets.


Gold struggles below $3,950 amid Fed hike bets, ahead of US midterm elections

Gold weakens further below $3,950 during the Asian session, reversing part of the previous day's recovery from a one-year low set last week. Data released on Monday showed that US manufacturing sector business activity expanded for the 10th straight month in October. The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI came in higher than consensus estimates and rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in the previous month. This reaffirms hawkish US Federal Reserve expectations, which along with rebounding US bond yields, prompt fresh selling around the non-yielding yellow metal.

Cardano extends losses as sellers stay in control

Cardano (ADA) extends correction, trading below $0.189 on Tuesday after losing key support zone the previous day. Mixed derivatives data and cautious on-chain metrics continue to weigh on bullish sentiment, while weakening technical indicators suggest further downside risks for ADA.

What a split Congress means for the US Dollar

The United States is going to the polls on Tuesday, and much is at stake. The mid-term elections mean the renovation of roughly one-third of the Senate and all 435 of the House seats. Additionally, special elections in Florida and Ohio will be held to fill the seats vacated by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions
The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.