EUR/USD recovers on weaker US Services PMIs


  • EUR/USD rebounds after weaker ISM Services PMI data undermines the US Dollar. 
  • Services inflation in the US is proving sticky but the PMI’s Prices Paid component showed a fairly steep fall. 
  • The odds of a June interest-rate cut from the Fed have recovered after the data. 

EUR/USD is rebounding and trading back above 1.0800 on Thursday, following the release of lower-than-expected ISM Services PMI data from the US. 

The data increases the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by June, bringing it more in line with the more concrete expectations of when the European Central Bank (ECB) will start cutting rates. 

The US Dollar (USD) suffered after the release because relatively lower interest rates or their expectation thereof are usually negative for a currency since they reduce inflows of foreign capital.  

EUR/USD: Services inflation not so sticky 

EUR/USD rebounded strongly on Wednesday after the release of ISM Services PMI for March undershot expectations. But it was probably the sharper fall in the ISM Services Prices Paid component figure, which measures inflation in the sector, which was the main driver of USD weakness. 

Services inflation is considered stickier than other types of inflation and is one of the metrics being most closely watched by the Fed as they try to decide when or whether to cut interest rates. 

ISM Services Prices Paid: Monthly 

The fall in Prices Paid to 53.4 from 58.6 prior, is a sign inflation in the sector is cooling considerably, making it more likely the Fed will cut interest rates by June. 

Indeed, this was reflected by the CME FedWatch tool, which gives a market-based probability of future Fed decisions, which is now indicating an over-60% chance of a cut by June, from a probability in the  mid-50% range on Monday.  

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD threatening to reverse short-term downtrend

EUR/USD extends its recovery from short-term seven-week lows in the 1.0720s on Thursday. 

It has now broken above a key resistance level from the swing low at the level of the B wave of the prior ABC pattern, suggesting the recovery is probably more than just a short pullback. 

Euro versus US Dollar: 4-hour chart

The established short-term downtrend is in doubt as the peaks and troughs of price start trending higher on the 4-hour chart, which is primarily used to monitor that trend. 

If price traces out one more higher low and higher high on the 4-hour timeframe, it will meet the criteria for a new uptrend, and switch the bias towards higher prices. 

A break above the key March 26 peak would be a further bullish sign. 

Should those criteria be met, the next upside target would be the 1.0940 high of March 21. 

However, price is currently encountering substantial dynamic resistance from several major Moving Averages on different timeframes which may make further upside difficult. 

As can be seen in the chart above, there are the 4-hour 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMA), as well as the 50-day and 200-day SMAs on the daily chart (not shown). 

There is still, therefore, a risk of some weakness if bears manage to push price down from this confluence of SMAs. 

The prior low at 1.0725 is the first downside target, followed by the 1.0694 February and year-to-date low.

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD holds above 1.0650 ahead of US Retail Sales data

EUR/USD holds above 1.0650 ahead of US Retail Sales data

EUR/USD trades modestly higher on the day above 1.0650 in European trading on Monday. A broadly subdued US Dollar and improving risk appetite bode well for the pair, as markets assess geopolitical developments and await US data. 

EUR/USD News

USD/JPY sits at multi-decade high near 154.00 as Japan's intervention risks loom

USD/JPY sits at multi-decade high near 154.00 as Japan's intervention risks loom

USD/JPY is sitting at multi-decade highs shy of 154.00 in the European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen continues to be undermined by the BoJ’s uncertain outlook about future rate hikes. Intervention fears and persistent geopolitical tensions could help limit losses for the safe-haven JPY. 

USD/JPY News

Gold struggles to hold above $2,350

Gold struggles to hold above $2,350

Following a bullish opening to the week, Gold went into a consolidation phase and retreated below $2,350 on Monday. Rising US Treasury bond yields and expectations of Israel avoiding a further escalation of the conflict with Iran weighs on XAU/USD.

Gold News

XRP price recovers from nearly eleven month low of $0.41 as developers propose native lending on XRPLedger

XRP price recovers from nearly eleven month low of $0.41 as developers propose native lending on XRPLedger

Ripple price recovered from weekend low of $0.4188, surged past $0.50 on Monday. XRPLedger developers have proposed a Native Lending Protocol to help Ripple establish a foothold in DeFi, lending and borrowing for users. 

Read more

Week ahead: Data from the US, UK and Canada in focus

Week ahead: Data from the US, UK and Canada in focus

Similar to Fed and ECB pricing, swaps traders have scaled back bets of rate cuts for the Bank of England (BoE’s) Bank Rate to below 50bps for the year.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures