EUR/USD recovered ground on Wednesday, but hits ceiling post-FOMC

EUR/USD climbed to 1.0850 before facing a pullback after Fed rate call.
FOMC “dot plot” teases less rate cuts in 2024 than previously expected.
ECB talking points to round out the Euro’s week.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

EUR/USD launched higher on Wednesday, climbing after broad-market risk appetite surged following a cooler-than-expected print in US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, but a hawkish tilt to the Federal Reserve’s latest update to its dot plot of interest rate expectations crimped market sentiment to round out the day.

Forex Today: US inflation dominates headlines

According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), only a single quarter-point rate cut is now expected in 2024. Market hopes for Fed rate cuts have steadily clashed with the Federal Reserve’s own rate cut expectations through 2024, and according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are still pricing in over 60% odds of at least a 25 basis-point rate trim on September 18.

Eurogroup meetings on Thursday and Friday, pan-European Industrial Production figures, and several speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers will wrap up the trading week’s Euro events, while US jobless claims and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will provide perspective after the Fed’s latest rate call.

European Industrial Production figures for April are slated for Thursday, with median market forecasts expecting figures to ease to 0.2% MoM compared to the previous 0.6%. US Initial Jobles Claims for the week ended June 7 are expected later on Thursday, with investors expecting 225K new jobless claimants compared to the previous week’s 229K.

A handful of speeches from ECB central planners smatter Friday’s economic calendar, and the Univeristy of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for June is expected to recover to 72.0 from 69.1.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD is once again mired in congestion at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0803. Wednesday’s bullish push dragged the pair back into contention with a descending trendline drawn from 2024’s peak bids near 1.1150, but near-term technical resistance is keeping the Fiber pinned. The pair has etched in a near-term technical rejection from 1.0850, and the way is open for a bearish return to this week’s low bids near 1.0720.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.0811
Today Daily Change	0.0071
Today Daily Change %	0.66
Today daily open	1.074

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0843
Daily SMA50	1.0778
Daily SMA100	1.0804
Daily SMA200	1.0788

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0774
Previous Daily Low	1.072
Previous Weekly High	1.0916
Previous Weekly Low	1.08
Previous Monthly High	1.0895
Previous Monthly Low	1.065
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.074
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0753
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0715
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.069
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0661
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0769
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0798
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0823

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

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