EUR/USD pares heavy losses below 1.1800 ahead of US data, Fed

EUR/USD licks its wounds around 1.1770, up 0.05% intraday while consolidating the previous day’s fall, the heaviest in a month. That said, the US dollar pullback amid an inactive session could be linked to the currency major’s rebound heading into Friday’s European session.

US Dollar Index (DXY) grinds higher around 92.85, steady of late, following that biggest daily jump in since mid-August. The greenback gauge rallied Thursday after the US Retail Sales for August and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for September renewed Fed tapering concerns. The US Retail Sales MoM jumped to the highest in five months while crossing expectations of -0.8% with +0.7% figures. Further, the Philly Fed gauge also rose strongly to 30.7 versus 19 forecast and 19.4 prior, marking the strongest figures in three months.

Also underpinning the greenback were chatters that the US, the UK and Australia are indirectly challenging China with securities pact and the US hosting of the UK, India, Australia and Japan for diplomatic talks the next week. Additionally, the Sino-American tussles, recently over Taiwan, join the hurricanes that challenge oil firms in the US Gulf to add to the risk-off mood and favor the US dollar’s safe-haven demand. As per the latest updates, the US and Australia issue joint statement showing concerns over the South China Sea claims while conveying readiness to strengthen ties with Taiwan.

On the other hand, the UK Financial Times (FT) news that European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economic Philip Lane hints at a faster inflation run-up triggered the Euro uptick yesterday but was rejected by the ECB afterward.

Furthermore, a rethink over the Fed’s tapering seems to probe the bears. Reuters’ latest poll of 51 economists pushes back the tapering to the November meeting while citing the inflation concerns. The survey also hints at the Delta covid variant’s downbeat impact on the US Q3 GDP. Additionally, hints that the US stimulus talks are in pipeline and more vaccines are on the way seemed to have underpinned the latest consolidation.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures remain directionless while the US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw near 1.33% by the press time.

The final reading of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, expected to confirm a 3.0% YoY forecast, is there on the calendar to offer immediate direction. However, EUR/USD traders will be more interested in the preliminary readings of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September, expected 72.2 versus 70.3 prior. Should the consumer-centric data provides a positive surprise, Fed tapering woes may exert additional downside pressure on the EUR/USD prices.

Technical analysis

A horizontal area established since July, around 1.1750 questions EUR/USD bears before directing them to early August low near 1.1710 and the yearly low surrounding 1.1665. Alternatively, recovery moves remain doubtful unless crossing the 50-DMA level of 1.1797 on a daily closing basis.