Analysts at ING see the EUR/USD pair with a neutral bias for next week and see it trading between 1.1065 and 1.1180.
“Barring any week-end surprises out of the Middle East, risk sentiment should start the week on the front foot and be mildly supportive for the dollar against the low yielders such as the EUR. The highlight of the week, in theory, should be the signing of the phase-one of the trade deal in Washington on Wednesday. Warm words should be backed on the macro side, where our team see Chinese 4Q19 GDP (released Friday) beating the 6.0% consensus figure. In terms of US data, we’ll get updates on inflation, retail sales and industrial production. The soft December manufacturing ISM reading is still sending warning signals over the industrial sector, but there are no signs yet that weakness here is spreading to other sectors. And notably even events in the Middle East did not budge the market from its thinking that the Fed policy rate will remain untouched throughout 1H20.”
“The European data calendar is relatively quiet. We’ll see November industrial production data on Wednesday and the minutes of the December European central bank meeting. The focus here will probably be on what is to be expected of the strategic review on monetary policy, e.g. a change in the inflation target. EUR/USD has started the year in a quiet fashion despite events in the Middle East and at the margin is showing a negative correlation with risk – as the EUR builds out its status as a funding currency.”
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