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EUR/USD looks for balance after off-kilter wobble, US CPI and Fed projections loom ahead

EUR/USD extended into a two-day tumble as Greenback resurges.
Thin economic calendar on Tuesday leaves the way open for Fed fears.
Markets to look for signs of Fed weakness heading into midweek inflation print.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

EUR/USD trimmed into the low side after a steep correction extended from Friday through Monday, dragging the pair down -1.57% peak-to-trough and the Fiber is once again testing bids near 1.0750.

EU Parliamentary elections hobbled the Euro heading into the new trading week as bumpy parliament shuffling poses a near-term risk for policymaking, weighing heavily on the Euro. A thin calendar on the EU side except for Final German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures early Wednesday leaves the Fiber exposed as broader markets pivot to face the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) rate call and an update to the Fed’s own dot plot summary of interest rate projections.

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in a 51% chance that the Fed will hold on rates in September after rate cut hopes were knocked firmly back last week. With the Fed’s upcoming update to its “dot plot” of interest rate expectations on the docket this Wednesday, investors will be racing to see what Fed policymakers expect looking forward.

Wednesday also brings an update to US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Median market forecasts expect headline CPI inflation to cool to 0.1% MoM, with Core CPI Inflation expected to tick down to 3.5% from 3.6% YoY.

EUR/USD technical outlook

The Fiber is stuck in near 1.0770 after a steep decline from Friday’s action near 1.0900. An overextended decline through near-term consolidation, and a bidding rebound could pare back losses back above the 1.0800 handle.

A two-day backslide has dragged EUR/USD back below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0806, and near-term corrections will run aground of descending trendlines from 2024’s peak bids near 1.1140.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.0765
Today Daily Change	-0.0037
Today Daily Change %	-0.34
Today daily open	1.0802

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0848
Daily SMA50	1.0778
Daily SMA100	1.0807
Daily SMA200	1.0788

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0904
Previous Daily Low	1.08
Previous Weekly High	1.0916
Previous Weekly Low	1.08
Previous Monthly High	1.0895
Previous Monthly Low	1.065
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.084
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0864
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0766
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0731
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0662
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0871
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0939
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0975

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

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