EUR/USD flat lines below mid-1.1100s ahead of Eurozone CPI, US macro data

EUR/USD lacks firm direction as traders await Eurozone inflation data before placing fresh bets.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks on Monday underpins the USD and caps the major.
Bets for more rate cuts by the ECB contribute to keeping a lid on the pair ahead of the key data.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction following the previous day's pullback from the vicinity of the 14-month peak – levels just above the 1.1200 mark and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1135-1.1140 area, nearly unchanged for the day as traders keenly await the release of the Eurozone inflation data before placing directional bets.

The flash version is expected to show that the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) probably fell below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target in September. Against the backdrop of a fall in the German CPI to the lowest level since February 2021, a softer Eurozone CPI print will reaffirm bets for a 25 bps rate cut at the next ECB policy meeting in October. Conversely, the reaction to a higher reading is likely to remain limited amid a modest US Dollar (USD) strength, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the upside.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell adopted a more hawkish tone on Monday and said that he sees only two more 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year as a baseline if the economy performs as expected. Investors were quick to react and pared bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the US central bank. This, along with the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a broader conflict in the region, assists the safe-haven Greenback to build on the previous day's goodish rebound from its lowest level since July 2023.

Later during the early North American session, traders will take cues from the US economic docket – featuring the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data. Apart from this, speeches by a slew of influential FOMC members will drive the USD demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the EUR/USD pair, which remains confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks or so. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop, along with the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 1.1200 mark warrant caution for bulls.

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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