|

EUR/USD faces a challenge around 1.0550 ahead of US NFP data

  • EUR/USD experiences downward pressure ahead of US data.
  • ECB is expected to maintain its current interest rates; weighing on the Euro.
  • Fed's assertion on monetary policy is contributing to the strength in US Bond yields.

EUR/USD moves lower after two-day gains, trading slightly lower around 1.0540 during the Asian session on Friday. However, the pair found support on the upside, a trend that could be linked to the correction in the US Dollar (USD) following a decrease in US Bond yields.

Germany's trade surplus for August decreased to €16.6 billion from €17.7 billion in July, surpassing the market's anticipated figure of €15.0 billion.

European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its current interest rates at 4.50% in the upcoming meeting later this month. Insights from ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno on Wednesday suggested that inflation in the Euro area is declining more rapidly than its previous ascent. This observation hints at the possibility that the rate cycle may have reached its conclusion under the current conditions.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounds and trades higher around 106.50 as of now. The Greenback’s correction comes after reaching an 11-month high earlier this week.

US Treasury yields hold steady, maintaining their positions near multi-year highs. Market participants are exercising caution due to the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance on the trajectory of interest rates. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 4.70%, close to its highest level since 2007.

US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 29 saw an increase to 207K from the previous reading of 205K. Surprisingly, this surpassed the market expectation of 210K.

US Challenger Job Cuts have significantly decreased from 75.151K to 47.457K in September. Market participants watch for the upcoming release of US Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings on Friday. These figures will serve as a confirmation of the tight labor market, and upbeat numbers could potentially trigger a rise in the USD and elevate volatility in the bond market.

EUR/USD: additional important levels

Overview
Today last price1.0535
Today Daily Change-0.0011
Today Daily Change %-0.10
Today daily open1.0546
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.0619
Daily SMA501.0779
Daily SMA1001.0845
Daily SMA2001.0826
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.0552
Previous Daily Low1.05
Previous Weekly High1.0656
Previous Weekly Low1.0488
Previous Monthly High1.0882
Previous Monthly Low1.0488
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.0532
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.052
Daily Pivot Point S11.0513
Daily Pivot Point S21.0481
Daily Pivot Point S31.0461
Daily Pivot Point R11.0565
Daily Pivot Point R21.0584
Daily Pivot Point R31.0617

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

More from Akhtar Faruqui
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD recovers to 1.1750 region as 2025 draws to a close

Following the bearish action seen in the European session on Wednesday, EUR/USD regains its traction and recovery to the 1.1750 region. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low as trading conditions thin out on the last day of the year.

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3450 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD remains under modest beairsh pressure and fluctuates at around 1.3450 on Wednesday. The US Dollar finds fresh demand due to the end-of-the-year position adjustments, weighing on the pair amid the pre-New Year trading lull. 

Gold retreats to $4,300 area, looks to post monthly gains

Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP prepare for a potential New Year rebound

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are holding steady on Wednesday after recording minor gains on the previous day. Technically, Bitcoin could extend gains within a triangle pattern while Ethereum and Ripple face critical overhead resistance. 

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).