- EUR/USD shed another fifth of a percent on Tuesday.
- ECB Bank Survey results trimmed bullish Euro potential.
- ECB broadly expected to deliver another 25 bps rate cut this week.
EUR/USD fell further into the bearish side on Tuesday, declining one-fifth of one percent and slipping below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Price action closed below the 1.0900 handle for the first time since early August. Fiber has now fallen nearly 3% from late September’s peaks just north of the 1.1200 handle.
European banks broadly reported negative repercussions from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) summertime rate cut, with EU-area banks reporting that while credit standards have remain unchanged overall and actually eased for loans to households, consumer credit conditions remain tight. A rebound in housing loan demand is riding exclusively on anticipation of further rate cuts, implying consumers are over-borrowing in the near-term, while EU bank net interest income as a result of ECB policy rate decisions has turned negative for the first time since 2022.
The ECB’s upcoming rate call on Thursday is broadly expected to be a quarter-point rate trim on the main deposit rate with markets widely forecasting a 25 bps rate cut, while the ECB main refi rate is expected to get trimmed by a similar 25 bps to 3.4% from 3.65%.
Elsewhere on the Fiber data docket, US Retail Sales figures for September are slated for Thursday’s US market session. US Retail Sales are expected to rebound for the month of September, forecast to rise to 0.3% MoM from the previous 0.1%.
EUR/USD price forecast
EUR/USD has slid back below the 200-day EMA and lost hold of the 1.0900 handle. The pair has closed in the red for all but three of the last 12 consecutive trading days. Oversold warnings on the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) implies that near-term short momentum on Fiber may have run its course, leaving the pair primed for a bullish rebound from the 200-day EMA.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD attracts some buyers above 1.1050, FOMC Minutes in focus
The EUR/USD pair rises to near 1.1065 during the early European session on Wednesday. The US Dollar weakens against the Euro after US President Donald Trump's tariff policy takes effect. Later on Wednesday, traders will take more cues from the release of the FOMC Minutes.
GBP/USD appreciates to near 1.2850 due to easing trade tensions after Trump's comments
The GBP/USD pair advances for a second straight session, trading near 1.2820 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair’s uptick is supported by easing trade tensions after Trump signaled openness to negotiations with global partners, fueling hopes of a potential de-escalation in trade conflicts.
Gold: Third time a charm for buyers?
Gold price is looking to finally end its corrective downside early Wednesday, finding demand once again near the $2,970 region. A sustained upside in Gold price hinges on the market reaction to the reciprocal tariffs and the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve March policy meeting.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple target $73,000 BTC, $1,300 ETH, and $1.30 XRP
Bitcoin price hovers around $76,200 on Wednesday after falling 3.59% the previous day. Ethereum and Ripple followed BTC’s footsteps and continued their downward trend.
The Fed is looking at a hefty price level
We are still in thrall to tariffs, the faux-macro “data” driving markets. The WSJ editorial board advised other countries to take their tariffs to zero so that Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs will have to be zero, too. Cute, but no cigar.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.