EUR/USD drops to 1.5-month low as Fed rate hike fears fuel US Dollar, yields

EUR/USD extends three-day losing streak to refresh six-week low.
Strong US data, hawkish Fed talks favor upside momentum of US Dollar, Treasury bond yields.
ECB Minutes, policymakers’ statements appear less hawkish and probe Euro bulls.
Geopolitical fears add strength to the greenback’s haven demand and weigh on EUR/USD amid light calendar.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

EUR/USD bears keep the reins around 1.0630, the lowest level in six weeks while portraying a three-day downtrend during early Friday.

The major currency pair’s latest fall seems akin to the broad US Dollar run-up and mixed clues from the European Central Bank (ECB) officials.

While printing the greenback’s run-up, the US Dollar Index (DXY) grinds near the 1.5-month top surrounding 104.30, marked earlier in Asia. In doing so, the US Dollar’s gauge versus the six major currencies cheers the hawkish concerns about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move amid strong US data and upbeat comments from the Fed policymakers.

A slew of US statistics concerning inflation, employment and output underpin the force that pushes back the Fed’s policy pivot talks. The fashion could be witnessed in the latest comments from the Fed officials and the FEDWATCH tool, observed via Reuters.

At home, the ECB’s monthly bulletin and the latest comments from the policymakers, including executive board member Fabio Panetta and Chief Economist Philip Lane, signal the need for a cautious monetary policy move amid economic jitters.

Elsewhere, the recent fears of more US-China tussles over the spy balloon and Taiwan also bolster the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand, which in turn weighs on the EUR/USD price.

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures mark 0.30% intraday losses to 4,086 while poking the weekly low after falling the most in a month on Thursday. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rise to a fresh high since December 30, 2022, whereas the two-year US Treasury bond also renews the highest levels since November 2022, making rounds to 3.88% and 4.68% in that order.

Moving on, a light calendar and the well-set hawkish Fed concerns, versus doubts over the ECB’s future rate hikes, the EUR/USD is likely to remain bearish ahead of next week’s monetary policy meeting minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Technical analysis

A clear downside break of the three-month-old support line, now resistance around 1.0710, joins the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) breakdown, close to 1.0675 at the latest, to keep EUR/USD bears hopeful of meeting the previous monthly low of 1.0483.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	1.0638
Today Daily Change	-0.0036
Today Daily Change %	-0.34%
Today daily open	1.0674

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0805
Daily SMA50	1.0722
Daily SMA100	1.0403
Daily SMA200	1.0327

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0722
Previous Daily Low	1.0655
Previous Weekly High	1.0799
Previous Weekly Low	1.0666
Previous Monthly High	1.093
Previous Monthly Low	1.0483
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0681
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0697
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0645
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0616
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0577
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0712
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0751
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.078

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

GBP/USD stays weak below 1.3600 as USD bulls await Warsh's speech

GBP/USD is consolidating near the lower end of its weekly range, below the 1.3600 mark, during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair's downside, however, remains cushioned as traders await Fed Chair Warsh's speech on Friday for more cues about the US central bank's interest rate path before placing fresh directional bets.

EUR/USD holds range around 1.1650 as USD steadies

EUR/USD keeps its range around 1.1650 in the European session on Thursday. Hawkish ECB expectations support the pair as the US Dollar consolidates after the US PCE data-driven advance. The focus remains on Middle East developments and US Jobless Claims data.

Gold struggles to build on gains as traders await Fed Chair Warsh's speech for rate cues

Gold struggles to capitalize on modest Asian session gains on Thursday and remains below its highest level since May 14, touched earlier this week. Traders now seem hesitant to place aggressive directional bets and wait for US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday for cues on the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding bullion.

Ripple eases to $1.40, Solana hits $100, DOGE capped below $0.10

Ripple (XRP) and Dogecoin (DOGE) are facing downside pressure after double-digit gains last week, while Solana (SOL) extends its rally to $100. The technical outlook for XRP, SOL, and DOGE points to potential upside as the broader market sustains a risk-on sentiment.

Jackson Hole kicks off after upside PCE surprise

In China, industrial profits rose 17.6% y/y to CNY 4.58tn in the first seven months of 2026, slowing from an 18.7% increase in January-June. The moderation follows several months of strong profit growth around 20% y/y, supported by higher producer prices and solid manufacturing activity.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.