• EUR/USD reverses the recent weakness and targets 1.0400.
  • The dollar looks offered ahead of data, Fed’s Powell.
  • EMU Flash Inflation Rate is seen rising 10% YoY in November.

The single currency regains some balance and lifts EUR/USD to daily highs in the 1.0380/85 band on Wednesday.

EUR/USD looks firm ahead of Powell

After three daily pullbacks in a row, EUR/USD prints decent gains and looks to reclaim the 1.0400 neighbourhood on the back of fresh weakness hurting the greenback.

Indeed, the pair marches on a firm foot amidst a flat performance in US and German yields and rising prudence ahead of the speech by Chief Powell later in the NA session.

An interesting calendar in the euro area saw Germany’s Unemployment Change rise by 17K people and the jobless rate tick higher to 5.6%, both prints for the month of November. Additionally, flash figures now see the headline CPI in the broader euro area rise at an annualized 10.0% in November and 5.0% when it comes to the Core CPI.

Across the Atlantic, Chair Powell will speak on “Economic Outlook, Inflation and the Labor Market” and FOMC Governor L.Cook will also speak on “The Outlook for Monetary Policy and Observations on the Evolving Economy”.

More from the US data space will see MBA Mortgage Applications, the ADP Employment Change report, Goods Trade Balance, another revision of the Q3 GDP Growth Rate, Pending Home Sales and the Fed’s Beige Book.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD sees its upside bias renewed on Wednesday in response to the fresh downside pressure in the dollar, while expectations ahead of the speech by Fed’s Powell remain on the rise.

In the meantime, the European currency is expected to closely follow dollar dynamics, the impact of the energy crisis on the region and the Fed-ECB divergence. In addition, markets repricing of a potential pivot in the Fed’s policy remains the exclusive driver of the pair’s price action for the time being.

Back to the euro area, the increasing speculation of a potential recession in the bloc emerges as an important domestic headwind facing the euro in the short-term horizon.

Key events in the euro area this week: Germany Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Change, EMU Flash Inflation Rate (Wednesday) - Germany Retail Sales, ECB General Council Meeting, Germany/EMU Final Manufacturing PMI, EMU Unemployment Rate (Thursday) - ECB Lagarde, Germany Balance of Trade (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation of the ECB hiking cycle vs. increasing recession risks. Impact of the war in Ukraine and the persistent energy crunch on the region’s growth prospects and inflation outlook. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, the pair is gaining 0.37% at 1.0367 and faces the next up barrier at 1.0496 (monthly high November 28) ahead of 1.0500 (round level) and finally 1.0614 (weekly high June 27). On the flip side, a breach of 1.0330 (weekly low November 28) would target 1.0222 (weekly low November 21) en route to 1.0037 (100-day SMA).


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended content

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0850 ahead of mid-tier data

EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0850 ahead of mid-tier data

EUR/USD edges slightly lower toward the 1.0850 area in the early European session on Monday as the cautious market mood helps the US Dollar hold its ground. Markets await business and consumer sentiment data from the Euro area and German growth figures.


GBP/USD stays on the back foot below 1.2400

GBP/USD stays on the back foot below 1.2400

GBP/USD came under modest bearish pressure and dropped below 1.2400 at the beginning of the week. The negative shift witnessed in risk mood helps the US Dollar find demand as a safe haven and makes it difficult for the pair to gain traction.


Gold shows resilience below 200-hour SMA, bulls have the upper hand

Gold shows resilience below 200-hour SMA, bulls have the upper hand

Gold price kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading band through the Asian session. The XAU/USD remains well within the striking distance of a nine-month peak touched last Thursday.

Gold News

Why Ethereum bears need to be cautious about shorting ETH before $2,000

Why Ethereum bears need to be cautious about shorting ETH before $2,000

Ethereum price has been consolidating after the January rally subsided after three weeks. This tightening continues even after BTC shot up 3% over the weekend. Therefore, a short-term spike in buying pressure should is likely. 

Read more

Big risk this week Fed hikes 50 points

Big risk this week Fed hikes 50 points

While the entire global investment community is apparently very excited about the US Fed slowing its rate increases to 25 bps, there are strong reasons for arguing why another 50 bps rate hike, or two, are still on the menu.

Read more