EUR/USD: Bulls stop advancing – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Euro (EUR) fell on headlines regarding universal tariffs. FT reported that Treasury secretary Scott Bessent favours universal tariffs on US imports, starting at 2.5% while Trump said he wants tariffs ‘much bigger’ than 2.5%. This puts tariff agenda back on the table and should restraint EUR bulls for now. Pair was last at 1.0428 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Some pullback is not ruled out this week

"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but shows signs of fading while RSI shows tentative signs of falling from near overbought conditions. Some pullback is not ruled out this week. Support at 1.0420/30 levels (23.6% fibo, 50 DMA), 1.0350 (21 DMA) and 1.03 levels. Resistance at 1.0520, 1.0570 levels (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep high to Jan low)."

"On ECB meeting (Thursday), our house view looks for a cut, consistent with market expectation for a 25bp cut. Recent ECB-speaks remain dovish and continued to point to a measured pace of rate cut with no hint of larger magnitude of rate cut. Stournaras said the cuts should be in the order of 25bp each time so that by end-2025, rates is close to 2%, from the 3% that we are today."

"Klass said that he is comfortable with market bets for rate cuts at the next 2 meetings but not convinced yet that ECB needs to go into stimulative mode. Villeroy said it is plausible for rates to be around 2% in summer. Lagarde said that disinflation process continues, and policymakers do not see themselves as behind the curve. ECB will maintain its measured approach to ease monetary policy."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD falls to near 0.7100 after slipping below 50-day EMA

AUD/USD depreciates after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair consolidating sideways within a rectangle pattern, as neither bulls nor bears gain control. The AUD/USD pair is holding a slight bearish tone however as it sits beneath both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs.

160.00: USD/JPY back near intervention territory after upbeat US jobs report

US Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations by a wide margin in May, with 172K jobs added. The US Dollar rebounds after the release, helping USD/JPY recover from its intraday lows. Warnings from Japanese authorities continue to limit upside potential near the 160.00 threshold.

Gold targets $4,300 amid stronger Dollar

Gold faces increasing selling interest and navigates the area of three-month lows near the $4,300 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s decline comes as traders assess the stronger-than-expected NFP, while the bid bias in the Greenback and higher US Treasury yields also collaborate with the retracement.

Cardano hits five-year low even as Hoskinson clarifies "break" isn't an exit

Cardano (ADA) price is down 10% at press time on Friday, extending losses over 30% so far this week amid Charles Hoskinson's clarification that "break" isn't an exit.

Week ahead – Fed countdown begins amid US inflation data and geopolitical risks

Fed Chair Warsh’s first meeting approaches as key US inflation data could reshape expectations. Oil prices remain elevated as US-Iran talks continue; tariffs also return to the spotlight. ECB is expected to hike; will it be a one-off move or is July live?

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.