• The Euro soars more than 100 pips against the Pound Sterling.
  • ECB Lagarde opened the door for further 50 bps rate hikes in subsequent meetings.
  • BoE’s decision ended 75 bps rate hikes, though it stated its commitment to tame inflation.

The EUR/GBP rallies as the New York session progresses after the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) decisions to hike rates by 50 bps each in their last monetary policy meetings of 2022. At the time of writing, the Euro (EUR) has gained traction against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and is trading at 0.8705, above its opening price by 1.30%.

ECB and BoE raised rates by 50 bps

Risk aversion keeps the EUR/GBP soaring sharply. The ECB’s decision to raise rates by 50 bps was widely expected, but the Quantitative Tightening (QT) announcement surprised the markets. The ECB’s QT will start in March 2023 at a €15 billion pace, and it will run through Q2 and be set on an ongoing basis. The ECB updated its inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025, expecting to hit 3.4% and 2.3%, respectively. Due to the upward revisions on inflation, the ECB stated that rates would still need to rise “significantly further.”

Meanwhile, ECB’s President Christine Lagarde said that it was “obvious” to expect 50 bps rate hikes for some time, adding that February, March, and April could also witness a 0.50% hike to the depo facility. Following Lagarde’s remarks, market pricing puts the ECB terminal rate at around 3%.

Elsewhere, the Bank of England hiked rates by 50 bps, lifting the Bank Rate to 3.50%, as widely expected by analysts. The decision was not unanimously approved, with a 7-2 split, with BoE members Tenreyro and Dhingra opting for a no change, while Catherine Mann voted for a 75 bps rate hike. The BoE’s said that further rate increases might be required to achieve the bank’s 2% goal. They added, “if the outlook suggested more persistent inflationary pressures, it would respond forcefully, as necessary.”

EUR/GBP Reaction

After the decisions, the EUR/GBP extended its gains due to the “hawkishness” perceived on the ECB’s side, while the BoE reiterated in its previous meeting that the terminal rate was substantially lower than what markets were pricing. Since the decision, the EUR/GBP climbed from 0.8610 to 0.8723 daily highs.

EUR/GBP Key Technical Levels

EUR/GBP

Overview
Today last price 0.8713
Today Daily Change 0.0117
Today Daily Change % 1.36
Today daily open 0.8596
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.8626
Daily SMA50 0.8677
Daily SMA100 0.8636
Daily SMA200 0.8551
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.8617
Previous Daily Low 0.8576
Previous Weekly High 0.8646
Previous Weekly Low 0.856
Previous Monthly High 0.8828
Previous Monthly Low 0.8572
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.8592
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.8602
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.8576
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.8555
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.8534
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.8617
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.8638
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.8658

 

 

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