EUR/GBP moves above 0.8450 amid higher-than-expected German Trade Balance

EUR/GBP gains ground as German Trade Balance increases to €24.9 billion in May.
The Euro may struggle due to political uncertainty in France.
The Pound Sterling could limit its downside due to positive sentiment following the Labour Party's landslide victory.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/GBP edges higher to near 0.8460 during the early European session on Monday. This upside could be attributed to the higher-than-expected German Trade Balance. The trade surplus increased to €24.9 billion in May, surpassing the market expectations of €20.3 billion and the previous reading of €22.2 billion (revised from €22.1 billion).

However, political uncertainty in France following the second round of parliamentary elections on Sunday exerted some selling pressure on the Euro (EUR), which might limit the upside of the EUR/GBP cross. According to The Economist, exit polls indicated that the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is on track to win the most seats, having secured at least 174 seats.

Meanwhile, CNBC reported that Deutsche Bank strategists saying “Trying to build a government that has any kind of stability looks a very high bar this morning. Political paralysis for the next 12 months seems the most likely outcome.” They believe markets will be wary of the NFP's “fiscally aggressive” spending and taxation plans.

In the United Kingdom (UK), the Pound Sterling (GBP) receives support due to positive sentiment following the Labour Party's landslide victory in the 2024 general election. Labour won 410 seats, a significant increase of 212 seats from the 2019 elections.

In the absence of high-priority data from the UK, traders are likely to focus on the releases of BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales on Tuesday and Gross Domestic Product figures on Thursday. These data points could provide fresh insights into British economic conditions.

Euro PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.02%	-0.03%	0.10%	-0.12%	0.13%	-0.04%	-0.06%
EUR	0.02%		0.19%	0.45%	0.22%	0.30%	0.31%	0.29%
GBP	0.03%	-0.19%		0.23%	0.05%	0.11%	0.12%	0.09%
JPY	-0.10%	-0.45%	-0.23%		-0.21%	0.05%	0.02%	-0.10%
CAD	0.12%	-0.22%	-0.05%	0.21%		0.20%	0.07%	0.07%
AUD	-0.13%	-0.30%	-0.11%	-0.05%	-0.20%		0.00%	-0.02%
NZD	0.04%	-0.31%	-0.12%	-0.02%	-0.07%	-0.01%		-0.02%
CHF	0.06%	-0.29%	-0.09%	0.10%	-0.07%	0.02%	0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

GBP/USD hits multi-week tops around 1.3560

GBP/USD gathers fresh steam and advances to new three-month peaks near the 1.3560 zone on Friday. Cable’s sharp move higher comes after three daily drops in a row and follows the increasing selling pressure hurting the Greenback.

EUR/USD pops to fresh two-month highs, targets 1.1600

EUR/USD advances markedly, revisiting the upper 1.1500s for the first time since mid-June. The pair’s sharp uptick comes on the back of a strong retracement in the US Dollar amid BoJ intervention chatter and despite steady uncertainty in the Middle East.

Gold picks up pace, approaches $4,400

Gold rebounds toward the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday, reversing the previous day’s pullback. The precious metal’s recovery comes as fresh and intense weakness keep weighing on the US Dollar, while traders keep assessing easing expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate hike and the situation from the Middle East.

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI extends consolidation as bulls eye $0.10

Pi Network (PI) price holds steady on Friday, maintaining a consolidating tone for three consecutive days. Mild retail strength in the PI token remains stable, with Open Interest above $9 million, while social buzz eases. PI token’s technical outlook is mixed, as bearish momentum wanes to neutral, with bulls eyeing the $0.1000 psychological level.

Weekly focus: Some relief in US inflation concerns

Actual inflation data for July came out as expected with a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and 0.2% excluding food and energy. Annual headline inflation remains too high at 3.4% and means that wage earners are experiencing stagnating spending power at best, and core inflation is a bit higher than the inflation target of two percent would suggest.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.