|

EUR/GBP edges higher to near 0.8300 following the disappointing UK data

  • EUR/GBP appreciates following the release of weaker-than-expected UK data for October.
  • UK Gross Domestic Product contracted 0.1% MoM in October, against the expected increase of 0.1%.
  • Germany’s seasonally adjusted Trade Balance reported a surplus of €13.4 billion for October, below the expected €16.1 billion.

EUR/GBP extends its gains for the second successive session following the release of key economic data from the United Kingdom (UK) and Germany, the largest economy in the European Union (EU) and the world's third-largest exporter. The EUR/GBP cross trades around 0.8280 during the early European hours on Friday.

Data released by the Office for National Statistics reported that the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 0.1% month-over-month in October, against the expected increase of 0.1%. Meanwhile, Industrial Production fell 0.6% MoM following a previous decline of 0.5%, against the expected 0.3% rise. The monthly Manufacturing Production declined 0.6% in October, against the expected 0.2% increase and September’s 1% decline.

The British Pound (GBP) may regain its ground due to the increased likelihood that the Bank of England (BoE) will adopt a slower pace of policy easing compared to other central banks in Europe and North America.

Germany's Federal Statistics Office reported a seasonally adjusted trade surplus of €13.4 billion for October, below the expected €16.1 billion and September's €17.0 billion. During the same period, German exports fell by 2.8%, while imports saw a slight reduction of 0.1%.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to reduce its Rate on Deposit Facility by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.0%, as expected. Similarly, the Main Refinancing Operations Rate was reduced by 25 bps to 3.15%. This was the third straight 25 bps interest rate cut by the ECB in a row and the fourth of the year.

The upside of the Euro could be limited as ECB President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that officials discussed reducing interest rates by 50 bps. Lagarde said, "Risks to growth are tilted to the downside" as "Trade friction (with the United States) could weigh on growth."

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (MoM)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Last release: Fri Dec 13, 2024 07:00

Frequency: Monthly

Actual: -0.1%

Consensus: 0.1%

Previous: -0.1%

Source: Office for National Statistics

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

More from Akhtar Faruqui
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1750 as US Dollar loses strength

EUR/USD returned to the 1.1750 price zone in the American session on Friday, despite falling Wall Street, which indicates risk aversion. Trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, with the focus shifting to US employment and European data scheduled for next week.

GBP/USD nears 1.3500, holds within familiar levels

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades with modest intraday gains at around 1.3490 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold trims intraday gains, approaches $4,300

Gold retreated sharply from the $4,400  area and trades flat for the day in the $4,320 price zone. Choppy trading conditions exacerbated the intraday decline, although XAU/USD bearish case is out of the picture, considering growing expectations for a dovish Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Breaking: US Trump strikes Venezuela, claims President Maduro was captured and flown out of the country

United States (US) President Donald Trump has fulfilled his threats and finally struck Venezuela. Different media reports that explosions in Caracas began around 1:50 am local time on Saturday, leaving multiple areas of the city without power.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).