- EUR/GBP faces challenges as traders expect the ECB to deliver another rate cut in December.
- ECB policymakers have started discussing whether interest rates may need to fall below the neutral level.
- The BoE may deliver more rate cuts in November and December.
EUR/GBP remains subdued near 0.8310 during European trading hours on Wednesday, following losses in the previous session. The Euro is facing pressure as money markets have raised their expectations for further European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts. This shift comes after improvements in inflation control but growing concerns about the Eurozone’s economic outlook.
The ECB has already cut its Deposit Facility Rate three times this year, with another reduction widely expected at the December meeting. Remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde were seen as indicating a weaker economic outlook, prompting markets to anticipate a 25-basis point cut at each meeting through mid-2025.
According to sources familiar with the discussions, Reuters reported on Wednesday that European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have begun debating whether interest rates will need to drop below the neutral level during the current easing cycle. One source noted, "I think neutral is not enough," implying that the ECB may aim for significantly lower rates in the coming months.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) encountered challenges following declining consumer and producer inflation rates, along with weak labor market data in the United Kingdom (UK). These conditions are driving expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) might introduce a 25 basis point rate cut in November, followed by another in December.
On Tuesday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the need for the UK central bank to strengthen its oversight of the less transparent non-banking sector. Speaking at a Bloomberg event in New York, Bailey remarked, "We are nearing a point where we must shift focus from rule-making to surveillance" to better monitor financial activities outside traditional banking.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
Gold jumps to new record-high above $3,220 as China ramps up tariffs on US goods
Gold extends its relentless rally and trades at a new all-time high above $3,220 in the European session on Friday. The precious metal benefits from safe-haven flows following China's decision to raise additional tariffs on US imports to 125% from 84%.
EUR/USD climbs to fresh multi-year high above 1.1400 on intense USD weakness
EUR/USD continues to push higher and trades at its strongest level since February 2022 above 1.1400 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) stays under heavy pressure after China raised tariffs on US imports in retaliation, fuelling the pair's upsurge.
GBP/USD extends the advance to near 1.3100 as USD selloff picks up steam
GBP/USD preserves its bullish momentum and advances to near 1.3100 in the European session. The persistent USD weakness remains the main market theme as fears over the deepening China-US trade conflict triggering a recession in the US continue to grow.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple show weakness while XRP stabilizes
Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are hovering around $80,000 and $1,500 on Friday after facing rejection from their respective key levels, indicating signs of weakness. Meanwhile, Ripple broke and found support around its critical level; maintenance suggests a recovery on the cards.
Trump’s tariff pause sparks rally – What comes next?
Markets staged a dramatic reversal Wednesday, led by a 12% surge in the Nasdaq and strong gains across major indices, following President Trump’s unexpected decision to pause tariff escalation for non-retaliating trade partners.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.