EUR/GBP depreciates to near 0.8400 due to political uncertainty in Europe

EUR/GBP continues to depreciate for the second consecutive session, trading around 0.8410 during European hours on Friday. The Euro (EUR) struggles due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming European parliamentary elections. Investors are awaiting insights from ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech at the 30th Dubrovnik Economic Conference scheduled later in the day.

Political uncertainty in Europe is expected to weigh on the Euro and could further weaken the EUR/GBP cross. The recent European parliamentary elections have highlighted significant divisions within several member states. In France, President Emmanuel Macron's decision to dissolve parliament and call for snap elections follows a defeat by the far-right National Rally, potentially increasing their representation in the country's parliament, as reported by the European Council on Foreign Relations website.

The ECB delivered a 25 basis-point (bps) interest rate cut during its June meeting last week, a move widely expected by market participants. Financial markets have fully priced in one further reduction this year, but economists polled by Reuters last week forecast two more cuts occurring toward the end of 2024.

In the United Kingdom (UK), Consumer Inflation Expectations showed a slight decrease, with expectations for a 2.8% increase over the next 12 months, compared to a previous reading of a 3.0% rise. Traders await the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday. It is widely expected that the BoE will maintain interest rates at 5.25%.

Investor attention will primarily be on the number of policymakers likely to support a rate-cut decision. During the May meeting, BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden joined policymaker Swati Dhingra in voting for a 25 basis-point (bps) reduction in interest rates to 5.0%.

EuroNews reported BoE Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged significant progress in inflation declining to 2%, but emphasized, "We are not yet at a point where we can cut the base rate."