EUR: ECB decoupling to be tested – ING

The EUR/USD drop this morning appears largely USD-driven, although admittedly the euro does look on less stable ground when considering the room for European Central Bank dovish repricing compared to the Fed’s, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

A retest of the 1.110 support is possible

“The two-year OIS USD:EUR spread tightened again below 100bp after Powell’s speech (now at 96bp). That could argue for EUR/USD above 1.12 but the softer risk environment is favouring some profit-taking, and there may be some speculation that some rewidening in that rate differential is due.”

“Indeed, markets are pricing in one 50bp move by the Fed by year-end (100bp in total), but only 64bp by the ECB over the last three meetings of 2024. The investor community may not be consistently at ease with this decoupling of Fed-ECB rate expectations, and the risks are probably that some easing is priced back into the ECB curve to realign it with the Fed. Germany’s return to recession in the second quarter is a narrative that can contribute to that realignment.”

“EUR/USD may struggle to trade back closer to 1.120 in the next few days as the lack of key US data probably favours the dollar on the margin, and a retest of the 1.110 support is possible. But we don’t see the conditions for the recent EUR/USD rally to be substantially unwound. From tomorrow, eurozone CPI figures will start pouring in, which will be a key test for that ECB-Fed decoupling story.”