DXY: Concerns abroad driving Dollar strength – CIBC

Analysts at CIBC, forecast the US Dollar Index (DXY) will reach 98.9 during the fourth quarter and 95.6 on the second quarter of next year. 

Key Quotes: 

“Against a global backdrop of slowing growth and trade tensions, an inverted treasury yield curve suggests investors see the need for an extended Fed easing cycle ahead. But we share the view of many FOMC speakers that rate cuts will be a bit shallower than markets anticipate, with the rate cuts in July and September to be followed by one more 25 bp ease in December, and then a pause.”

“While US data has been a mixed bag, the economy has yet to have a quarter of growth below its non-inflationary potential. American consumers are in a healthy position based on an ample savings rate, low monthly financial obligations, and ongoing labor income growth. That underlying resilience, while not preventing a further slowing in growth, should be bullish for the dollar against overseas currencies in the very near-term, given the deeper risks to growth abroad (i.e. China and Europe), as well as uncertainty surrounding Brexit and trade, that will propel safe haven inflows in the greenback.”

“Over a longer time horizon, an easing in the appetite for such flows should see DXY give back some of its strength. For that, we’ll need some fiscal stimulus in Europe to reduce its dependence on negative yields, and an easing in US-China trade tensions. Any reduction in the attractiveness of US assets as a safe haven serves to weaken the greenback, given America’s persistent current account deficit.”