Dow Jones Industrial Average gains ground as investors await a reason to sell


  • The Dow Jones gained another 100 points on Wednesday.
  • Equities are enjoying a brief reprieve from major political headlines.
  • The economic data docket remains thin until Friday’s PMI print.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) continues to lean into the bullish on Wednesday, climbing around 100 points and inching towards 44,200 as equities tilt into the buy button. There aren’t any particular reasons for a fresh bull run to kick off, but investors aren’t finding any particular reason for a turn into the bearish side, either.

After a campaign trail full of almost-daily threats of wide-sweeping tariffs on all of the US’ trading partners, President Donald Trump’s big plans for day-one tariffs have evaporated into the ether. Fresh threats of an ambiguous level of import tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China have appeared on Trump’s social media. Still, investors have functionally called the new President’s bluff on his standard trade war rhetoric.

Economic data releases remain thin through the midweek market sessions, and equities are drifting higher in the absence of any numbers to be concerned about. S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) business activity survey results are due on Friday. PMI components are expected to come in mixed, with January’s PMI for the manufacturing sector expected to tick upwards slightly and a soft decline forecast for the services component. The figures themselves retain a cautionary level of exposure, and overall market impact should be at least somewhat moderated by the fact that surveys historically have a low response rate and may not accurately represent the overall business economy.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has entered its latest blackout period ahead of next week’s interest rate call, giving traders some breathing room from the usual parade of central bank policymaker appearances. The Fed is widely expected to stand pat on interest rates for most of the first half of 2025, a hardly surprising outcome as everyone waits to see which parts of the economic machine President Donald Trump chooses to break as retribution for any insults, real or perceived.

Dow Jones news

The Dow Jones is overall mixed on Wednesday, with the equity board roughly split down the middle between winners and losers. Outsized gains in key tech favorites are helping to keep the DJIA tilted toward the bullish side.

Nvidia (NVDA) gained another 4% during the midweek market session, climbing toward $147 per share. Nvidia is benefiting from an anticipated windfall of government funding in the tech space after President Donald Trump announced an investment plan into US-based “AI infrastructure” involving pledges from tech space giants OpenAI, Oracle, and Softbank to invest half a trillion dollars in the proposal, dubbed Stargate. Critics will be quick to point out the Stargate project looks eerily like taxpayers being put on the hook for tech space improvements with ambiguous potential for returns, but the move will undoubtedly be a boon for companies providing the tech that AI relies on to function.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones has gained ground for all but one of the last seven straight trading sessions, and further gains are on the cards as price action grinds its way back above the 44,000 handle. Technical oscillators have pushed back into the high end as the Dow Jones recovers from its last swing low below 42,000, but plenty of room appears left to run as the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence signal lines continue to rotate higher.

Dow Jones daily chart

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

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Next release: Fri Jan 24, 2025 14:45 (Prel)

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 49.6

Previous: 49.4

Source: S&P Global

 

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