Dow Jones Industrial Average sets new record high before tumbling 500 points on Thursday

Dow Jones rose into a fifth consecutive all-time high before receding on Thursday.
Equities are paring back after a heady rally on rate cut hopes.
September rate cut is fully priced in, Fed hold at the end of July expected.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rallied into yet another record high on Thursday before turning lower and following the broader market into a soft pullback that dragged intraday prices back into the midweek range. The Dow Jones is trading firmly above the 40,000.00 major price handle after getting buoyed into all-time highs by investor expectations of a September rate cut getting pinned to the ceiling.

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in over 98% odds of at least a quarter-point rate trim from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. Some particularly adventurous rate traders are pricing in a 5% chance of a first cut in July, but odds remain low at 5%.

Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims print helped to keep rate cut hopes bolstered after the number of new jobless benefits seekers rose to 243K for the week ended July 12, well above the previous week’s revised 223K and vaulting over the forecast 230K. While jobless claims aren’t a market-mover, it helps add weight to expectations of a continued loosening in the US job market, a key component alongside inflation figures to help bully the Fed into a rate cutting cycle.

Dow Jones news

Despite easing back into the low end on Thursday, the Dow Jones is roughly on-balance, with about half of the index’s constituent equities in the green for the day. Intel Corp. (INTC) rose over 3% to $35.52 per share despite an overall decline in the chipmaking sector. Banking dominated the low end on Thursday, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) both declining. JPM shed -2.85% to $210.69 per share while GS eased lower -2.43% to $489.98 per share.

Dow Jones technical outlook

After hitting a fifth consecutive all-time high of 41,37138 on Thursday, the Dow Jones index fell back below 40,900.00 as bulls take a much-needed breather. The Dow Jones closed in the green for six straight trading days, rallying nearly 5.5% in the process.

The Dow Jones’ latest bullish push has sent prices well into record highs, and even Thursday’s moderate pullback of -500 points still leaves prices buried deep in bull country, trading nearly 4% above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 39,345.00.

Dow Jones five minute chart

Dow Jones daily chart

Economic Indicator

Continuing Jobless Claims

The Continuing Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor measure the number of individuals who are unemployed and are currently receiving unemployment benefits. It is representative of the strength of the labor market. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourages economic growth. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bearish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bullish.

EUR/USD plummets to 1.1840 on US NFP

EUR/USD’s selling momentum now picks up pace and rapidly hits the 1.1840 region on Wednesday. Indeed, the pair’s decline comes amid rising buying pressure on the US Dollar in the wake of firmer-than-expected results from US NFP in January.

GBP/USD approaches 1.3600 on USD-buying

GBP/USD adds to Tuesday’s pullback and trades closer to the 1.3600 support on Wednesday. That said, Cable’s extra downside traction comes against the backdrop of renewed strength in the Greenback as investors assess the latest US NFP data.

Gold trims gains post-NFP, targets $5,000

Gold rapidly reverses initial gains and retreats to the vicinity of the $5,000 region per troy ounce amid further gains in the Greenback and rising US Treasury yields, all following the latest US NFP readings.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP sell-side pressure intensifies despite surge in addresses transacting on-chain

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.

US jobs data surprises to the upside, boosts stocks but pushes back Fed rate cut expectations

This was an unusual payrolls report for two reasons. Firstly, because it was released on Wednesday, and secondly, because it included the 2025 revisions alongside the January NFP figure.

Bitcoin price slips below $67,000 ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls data

Bitcoin price extends losses, and trades below the lower consolidating boundary at $67,300 at the time of writing. A firm close below this level could trigger a deeper correction for BTC. Despite the weakness in price action, institutional demand shows signs of support, recording mild inflows in ETFs so far this week.