Dollar to stay dominant for at least three months – Reuters poll


According to the latest Reuters poll of foreign exchange analysts, the US dollar is likely to extend its bullish momentum for at least the next three months, in the face of aggressive Fed rate hike expectations and demand for safe-haven assets.

Key takeaways

A three-quarters majority of analysts, 37 of 48, in a separate question from the July 1-6 Reuters FX poll expect that trend to continue for at least another three months.

Of those, 19 said three to six months, 10 said six to 12 months, four said at least a year and four said at least two years. Only 11 respondents said less than three months.

The median forecast from the latest poll of nearly 70 analysts doggedly clings to a long-held view that the dollar will weaken in the coming 12 months.

The euro is forecast to gain nearly 8.0% to around $1.10 by mid-2023.

Sterling is expected to regain around half of its lost ground in 2022 over the next year as the Bank of England looks set to continue raising interest rates.

While China's tightly controlled yuan, the Indian rupee and the Malaysian ringgit were predicted to trade around where they are now over the next three to six months, the Russian rouble and Turkey's lira were expected to fall.

Also read: BOJ to raise inflation view for fiscal 2022 to above 2% - Jiji

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