- WTI bounced back above $77.50 in broad market sentiment rebound.
- Crude Oil markets are recovering despite ongoing concerns over US oversupply.
- Fed rate cut bets continue to get hammered by sticky inflation fears.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil rebounded on Friday, recovering from a fresh 12-week low set early in the day at $76.03. WTI remains down on the week, in the red by -2.38% from Monday’s opening bids.
A recovery in broad market risk appetite is bolstering Crude Oil markets after investor hopes for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September were knocked further back this week. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in slightly-worse-than-even odds of at least a quarter-point rate trim from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September, steeply down from 70% odds priced in at the outset of the trading week.
US Durable Goods Orders firmly recovered in April, rising 0.7% MoM compared to the forecast -0.8% decline, while March’s figure was revised down to 0.8% from the initial print of 2.6%. University of Michigan 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations also eased slightly to 3.0% for the month of May, falling a tick lower from the forecast hold at 3.1%. Easing inflation expectations are helping battered investor sentiment, with commodity traders still licking their wounds after a collapse in September rate cut hopes.
Forecasting the Coming Week: Fedspeak and PCE remain in the spotlight
Talking points from policymakers at the Fed dominated financial headlines this week as Fed officials continue to press down on rate cut hopes, pushing back with cautionary statements that the Fed still needs more evidence that inflation will eventually drop to the Fed’s target of 2% annual price growth.
US Crude Oil production continues to weigh on barrel bulls after US supply counts snubbed forecast declines, showing another buildup in US Crude Oil supply lines. Energy traders were hoping for an extended decline in US supply stocks, but a surprise buildup in barrel counts from both the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) have left Crude Oil speculators hoping for an as-yet-unseen uptick in demand to eat away at US pumping capacity.
WTI technical outlook
US Crude Oil rebounded from a 12-week low to recapture the $77.50 level ahead of the week’s close. WTI continues to trade on the bearish side of the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average at $78.05, but Friday’s bullish recovery sends US Crude Oil back into familiar technical congestion.
WTI has cycled the 200-day EMA at $79.03 since dipping to a low of $68.00 in late 2023. Despite holding onto gains from 2024’s opening prices, WTI remains down nearly -11% from the year’s peaks near $87.20.
WTI hourly chart
WTI daily chart
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD gains traction after US data, tariff signals
The Australian Dollar gains ground against the US Dollar on Thursday. Despite these gains, the risk-sensitive AUD faces headwinds from fears of a potential global trade war, as United States President Donald Trump announced he will impose reciprocal tariffs on every country that charges duties on US imports.

EUR/USD climbs as sentiment pushes Greenback lower
EUR/USD caught a bid on Thursday, climbing seven-tenths of one percent and vaulting back over the 1.0400 handle. A general weakening in the Greenback bolstered Fiber flows off the back of not-as-bad-as-expected US Producer Price Index inflation figures.

Gold price advances amid uncertainty over US tariff threats
Gold climbed during the North American session on Thursday following the release of the Producer Price Index, which was mildly higher than expected. United States President Donald Trump's threats of tariffs increased the appeal of the yellow metal, which trades around $2,925.

Will Solana and SUI fall behind ETH as Ethereum Foundation deploys $120M DeFi investment?
Ethereum Foundation deployed 45,000 ETH, valued at approximately $120 million, into leading DeFi protocols to reinforce Ethereum’s position as the dominant decentralized finance network.

Tariffs likely to impart a modest stagflationary hit to the economy this year
The economic policies of the Trump administration are starting to take shape. President Trump has already announced the imposition of tariffs on some of America's trading partners, and we assume there will be more levies, which will be matched by foreign retaliation, in the coming quarters.

The Best Brokers of the Year
SPONSORED Explore top-quality choices worldwide and locally. Compare key features like spreads, leverage, and platforms. Find the right broker for your needs, whether trading CFDs, Forex pairs like EUR/USD, or commodities like Gold.