China’s GDP to slump to 4.5% in Q1 2020 on coronavirus risks - Reuters poll


According to a Reuters poll of 40 economists, the Chinese economy is likely to expand at the slowest pace since the global financial crisis (GFC) in the first quarter of 2020, in the wake of negative economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak.

Key Findings:

“China’s annual economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 to slump to 4.5% from 6.0% in the previous quarter.

That drop was expected to drag down the full-year growth rate in 2020 to 5.5% from 6.1% in 2019, its weakest since at least 1990 when comparable records began.

However, economists were optimistic the economy would bounce back as soon as the second quarter, with growth then forecast to recover to a median of 5.7%.

That figure was pushed higher by several optimistic forecasts from economists based in mainland China. The range was 2.9%-6.5%.

If Chinese authorities failed to contain the virus from spreading rapidly, growth was expected to slow to 3.5% in the first quarter in a worst-case scenario, according to a median from 15 economists in response to a separate question, with forecasts ranging between zero and 5.5%.”

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