ANZ analysts note that the Australia’s retail sales grew 0.4% m/m in June, in line with their expectations and slightly stronger than the market’s expectations, which brought quarterly sales growth to 0.6% in nominal terms.
“Nominal q/q results in retail have hovered between 0.6% and 0.7% for the last four quarters.”
“Volume growth was modest at 0.2% q/q – the fourth very weak quarter in a row. Another jump in food prices, reflecting dry conditions across key agricultural regions in Australia, was a key reason for the divergence between nominal and real growth rates. Annual volume growth was 0.2% y/y, the lowest result since 1991, when Australia was last in recession. To emphasise how weak, per capita retail sales were sharply negative.”
“Retail volumes decreased in annual terms in NSW, Tas, WA and the NT, while Vic and Qld were the only states to see noteworthy volume growth (1.4% y/y and 2.7% y/y respectively).”
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