- The focus will be on the RBA as a meanwhile distraction this week for the pair.
- AUD/USD bears took out key monthly support in September.
AUD/USD corrected from a key area on the charts on Friday with a test back through 0.64 the figure hardly left a mark on the downtrend that remains the bias for the start of the week and ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
In the RBA Sep minutes, the Board judged that it may be appropriate 'at some point' to scale back to 25bps hikes, but we think it is too soon for that. Data on balance is still strong, which suggests the economy is holding up well, as analysts at TD Securities noted.
''Thus, this affords room for the RBA to front-load hikes further as the Governor notes the current cash rate is "still probably on the low side".''
Meanwhile, the focus is firmly on the greenback, and prospects of more upside to follow as we move into a new quarter, as per the following analysis:
Meanwhile, domestically, going forward Australian growth is set to slow, analysts at Rabobank argued.
''The central bank forecasts growth at 3¼ per cent over 2022, underpinned by growth in consumption and a recovery in investment and service exports. Growth is then expected to slow to around 1¾ per cent over both 2023 and 2024. This outlook compares favorably with the Eurozone, UK and the US all of which are at risk of recession next year.''
'' We had anticipated a pullback to AUD/USD0.69 on the back of dollar strength. We continue to see scope for AUD/USD to clamber back to 0.71 on a 6-month view.''
AUD/USD technical analysis
Bears took the reigns again last month and broke a key structure as illustrated on the above chart, leaving the focus on the downside. However, breakout traders could come under heat on any corrections for the days/weeks ahead.
AUD/USD daily chart
The daily chart, however remains bearish while below the trendline resistance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.