- AUD/USD steady post-RBA's dovish stance and static rates.
- US housing data boosts optimism pre-FOMC decision.
- Fed policy update awaited, with eyes on interest rate forecasts.
The Australian Dollar begins Wednesday’s Asian session virtually unchanged against the US Dollar, following Tuesday’s loss of 0.41%, after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision. The RBA kept rates unchanged, tilting more dovish than expected. That said, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6532, almost flat.
Aussie Dollar stays firm following the central bank decision
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the RBA announced their March monetary policy decisions. The BoJ hiked rates by ten basis points, the first in 17 years, ending the era of negative interest rates. In addition, it ended the Yield Curve Control (YCC) and its ETF buying program. The RBA softened its tone while keeping the door open for additional tightening if needed.
In the meantime, US equities ended the session in the green as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions loom. Data-wise, the US economic docket revealed housing data. Building Permits increased by 1.9% from 1.489 M to 1.518M, improving sharply compared to January’s data. Housing Starts rose 10.7% from 1.425M to 1.521 M.
An absent economic docket in Australia keeps AUD/USD traders waiting for the Fed’s decision. ANZ analysts commented that they expect the Fed to make no major changes to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Regarding rate cuts, they noted, “We think it will cut in 25bp increments through the second half of the year, reducing the nominal Fed funds corridor by 100bp this year.”
AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
The AUD/USD fell below the 200-day moving average (DMA) of 0.6556, opening the door for further losses. This comes after the RBA decision, and with speculations for a Fed “hawkish” tilt, that would exacerbate a dip to 0.6500. Further losses are seen below March 5 swing low of 0.6477, and the February 13 low of 0.6442. On the upside, the 200-DMA would be the first resistance, followed by the 50-DMA at 0.6558 and the 100-DMA at 0.6586.
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