• AUD/USD edges up to 0.6539 after US producer inflation hints at easing pressures.
  • US Jobless Claims drop, indicating a resilient labor market despite mixed economic signs.
  • Federal Reserve officials express concerns over inflation trends, influencing market expectations about the timing and extent of future rate cuts.

The Australian Dollar recovered some territory against the US Dollar yet fell shy of reclaiming key technical resistance levels after Thursday’s US inflation data capped the Greenback's advance. As the Asian session begins, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6539, up by a minimal 0.02% at the time of writing.

AUD/USD shows a slight recovery after US PPI data underperforms expectations

On Thursday, the US Department of Labor revealed March’s Producer Price Index (PPI) with figures registering a 0.2% MoM increase, which is below the anticipated 0.3%. Similarly, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also recorded a 0.2% increase, falling short of both estimates and the previous month's figure.

Annually based figures showed the PPI increasing by 2.1%, less than expected but up from February's 1.6%. Meanwhile, the core PPI over the same period stood at 2.4%, exceeding both forecasts and the figure from the prior month.

Other data revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell, as Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 6 dipped from 222K to 211K, below estimates of 215K.

Given Thursday’s economic data's mixed outlook, AUD/USD traders booked profits following Wednesday’s plunge of 1.75%, which dragged spot prices to a fresh weekly low of 0.6498.

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve officials remain in a wait-and-see mode, led by New York Fed President John Williams, who commented that recent inflation data is disappointing. Richmond Fed Thomas Barkin added that “inflation data raise the question if we are seeing a shift.” Finally, Boston Fed Susan Collins added that she still sees rate cuts in 2024, though they could be fewer than projected.

In that regard, futures traders of Federal funds rates (FFR) are projecting that the Fed would ease policy twice, as shown by data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The December 2024 contract depicts traders expect the FFR to end at 4.97%.

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD tilted slightly bearish after cracking the confluence of the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs) at 0.6541. If buyers conquer that level, the next resistance will be 0.6600. However, failure to do so will drive the exchange rate below 0.6500, opening the door to test April’s 1 low of 0.6483, ahead of the February 13 low of 0.6442.

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price 0.654
Today Daily Change 0.0028
Today Daily Change % 0.43
Today daily open 0.6512
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.6551
Daily SMA50 0.6544
Daily SMA100 0.6603
Daily SMA200 0.6544
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.6631
Previous Daily Low 0.6499
Previous Weekly High 0.6619
Previous Weekly Low 0.6481
Previous Monthly High 0.6667
Previous Monthly Low 0.6478
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6549
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6581
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6464
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6415
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6331
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6596
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.668
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6729

 

 

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