|

AUD/USD slumps to 0.6430 as US Dollar rebounds, US Gov shutdown on the cards

  • The AUD/USD has walked back all of the day's gains in Friday trading as the DXY sees resurgence.
  • Friday sees the Aussie down over 1% against the Greenback.
  • A looming US government shutdown is seeing markets balk as investors clam up and jump back into the USD.

The AUD/USD has slipped over 65 pips on Friday to slide back into the 0.6430 neighborhood as the US Dollar Index (DXY) catches a broad-market lift in investor fears of an impending US government shutdown.

The American government is poised to head straight into a partisan lockdown, which could see next week's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) thrown into question; if the US government agency responsible for assembling and disseminating the NFP figures is furloughed, investors will be missing the regularly-scheduled labor figures.

Australian data failed to spark firm faith in the Aussie this week, after Australian Retail Sales failed to meet market expectations on Thursday. Aussie Retail Sales printed at a disappointing 0.2%, flubbing the previous read of 0.5% and coming in below the forecast 0.3%.

Read More:

AUD/USD clings to the range bound theme – UOB

A re-test of 2022 lows seems inevitable – SocGen

Forex Today: Another positive week for the Dollar

AUD traders will now be looking ahead to next week's Aussie data docket, with Securities Inflation on Monday and the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) next rate meeting on Tuesday.

The RBA is broadly forecast to hold rates steady at 4.1% as economic growth languishes for the Antipodean economy, and investors will be looking for any hints in the RBA's following rate statement report. The RBA is slated to appear at 03:300 GMT on Tuesday.

AUD/USD technical outlook

Friday's backslide sees the AUD/USD all set for a technical rejection from the 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily candles, and the pair remains trapped in familiar consolidation.

The AUD remains a weakly-bid currency, and swing lows have been chewing out progressively lower floors near 0.6325.

The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains high above current price action near 0.6700, and buyers will first need to contend with pushing the AUD/USD back over the 100-day SMA near 0.6575.

AUD/USD daily chart

AUD/USD technical levels

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price0.6432
Today Daily Change0.0005
Today Daily Change %0.08
Today daily open0.6427
 
Trends
Daily SMA200.6419
Daily SMA500.6492
Daily SMA1000.6591
Daily SMA2000.6691
 
Levels
Previous Daily High0.6432
Previous Daily Low0.6345
Previous Weekly High0.6511
Previous Weekly Low0.6385
Previous Monthly High0.6724
Previous Monthly Low0.6364
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%0.6399
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%0.6378
Daily Pivot Point S10.637
Daily Pivot Point S20.6314
Daily Pivot Point S30.6283
Daily Pivot Point R10.6458
Daily Pivot Point R20.6489
Daily Pivot Point R30.6546

Author

Joshua Gibson

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

More from Joshua Gibson
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1750 as US Dollar loses strength

EUR/USD returned to the 1.1750 price zone in the American session on Friday, despite falling Wall Street, which indicates risk aversion. Trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, with the focus shifting to US employment and European data scheduled for next week.

GBP/USD nears 1.3500, holds within familiar levels

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades with modest intraday gains at around 1.3490 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold trims intraday gains, approaches $4,300

Gold retreated sharply from the $4,400  area and trades flat for the day in the $4,320 price zone. Choppy trading conditions exacerbated the intraday decline, although XAU/USD bearish case is out of the picture, considering growing expectations for a dovish Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).